Category: Stats

Stats posts from our match data

AT XV Feeders Stats Blog

So, after a weekend of brilliant combat I was confronted with a week of real life responsibilities and then this…

I don’t like heat, me and heat don’t mix well, as my teammates will attest from AT practice. As such this compromised function is responsible for the delay in producing this sheet and any fever dream induced inaccuracies and flights of fancies within it. These are no relation to Bei and Nashh taking me out drinking, none at all.

 

Oneiros

So, without further delay on my part we’ll get into the meat of the stats from feeders. We’ll kick off with one of the most talked about ships of the weekend, the Oneiros, and this isn’t just because of a glitch in the stats sheets V1.0 that had it frequently being picked in 130% of matches it wasn’t banned in. (Sorry, Elise.) The Oneiros is the most popular ship in its class, in the pure number of teams picking it and close to the top even in absolute picks where its one off nature pulls it down the list.

At 1st for match picks, picks excluding bans, wins(though 2nd in losses) and then 4th in absolute picks and bans the Oneiros has been a defining ship of the feeders. Massively more popular than the Guardian, by nearly a factor of 3, it is a key ship within the armour team compositions. Picked in 64% of armour compositions the Oneiros’ nature as a logistics cruiser oriented towards self contained or solo usage lends itself naturally to tournament play. Its closest competitor, the Guardian, has seen a resurgence coming into the AT XV ruleset however, the reintegration of capacitor transfers unlocks the Guardian’s potential. Its short pair of mid slots work more effectively with external cap sourcing and allow it to work in the pseudo or semi tinker configurations we’ve begun to see reappearing as far more than a substitute for the prefered Oneiros.

Returning to the Oneiros itself we see it picked across a wide range of strategy from the traditional battleship top ended comps that have been worked into AT XV rules, to the drone comp resurgence and the BC(Battlecruiser) heavy cores. It’s no surprise that in 45% of its matches it was paired with the Daredevil, its competition for the most popular ship of the feeders, and one that is naturally armor tanked.

With 30% pick rates with both the BNI(Brutix Navy Issue) and HNI(Harbinger Navy Issue) and strong win rates with them, 70% and 80% respectively, the Oneiros is successful with the BC cored comps considering their 67% independant win rate. In general the 64% win rate of the Oneiros does little to buck the 61% armor comps have achieved overall. However a 43% rate of Oneiros picks facing another Oneiros drags its win rate down towards the 50% mark, outside its own mirror its win rate stands at a far more impressive 85%.

 

Daredevil

The other seemingly ubiquitous pick of the feeders was very much the flavour of the year, receiving a 2 point reduction in line with the Serpentis sponsorship of AT XV, the Daredevil is a pirate frigate that with a 50% cost reduction is priced as a T1 Frig.

Being one of the most agile frigates in the game and the reasonable durability that pirate ships get for their class, combined with its ability to field 90% stasis, a trait reserved for its own Serpentis kin or for those being very bold with battleships and grapplers, makes it a potent tackle frigate that can find application for most any heavy firepower behind it.

With this in mind the Daredevil is the only competition the Oneiros has for the top spot of match picks, 33, and it dwarfs it for absolute picks however with 50 Daredevils  being picked across the feeders they account for an incredible 5.59% of all ships picked. On average every match should have had a Daredevil in it, however 4 bans help put a stop to that, along with duplicate picks of course.

The Daredevil has become the default 2 point pick and its ubiquity has had a role in its 48% win rate without being a defining factor in teams a huge data set would be needed to start drawing conclusions on it. However it does have a perhaps unfavourable comparison.

Its competition for the 2 point armor tackle frigate slot is the Punisher, a less popular pick, seeing play for only 18 ships across 10 teams. It’s 70% win rate suggests success beyond that of the Daredevil, but with 30% of its matches being alongside the Daredevil and a 67% win rate there it is fulfilling a role not only as an alternative but an accompaniment in teams that are taking a very large tackle wing.

The Punisher fares better for survival in the match up, 39% to 36% is little benefit, however an average lifetime of 4:53 dwarfs 3:19, talking not just to how much more survivable they are but how much less teams want to be shooting them. Though the heightened potency of the Daredevil may be the counterpoint to this.

 

Armageddon

One of the winninge– No. No. Can’t. Not today. The Armageddon is one of the most successful ships of the feeders, the only ship to maintain a 100% win rate over more than 3 matches it kept it for all 7 matches it’s been picked it. Bringing the kind of long range capacitor warfare potential that we only otherwise see on flagship Bhaalgorns it’s found a solid place in the compositions that would traditionally rely on on their flagsheep. A 4 point increase in the points cost of the Bhaal along with a ban on flagsheep in the feeders has put it in a favourable position to take the role.

Its use in such a role has also seen some clever tactics, only one friendly or opposing ban has repeated across the entirety of the matches the ‘Geddon has seen. 5 bans for the Bhaal from opposing teams across 7 matches, a telegraphing of teams not wanting to face capacitor warfare that has secured the ‘Geddon pick its power. However with a total 23 bans coming in against the Bhaal, the most of any ship by 35%, the substitution or exploitation is far from straightforward, the ‘Geddon’s own 12 bans contributing to this.

Surviving all but one of its matches and once being fielded as a pair, the ‘Geddon has seen a wide variety of compositions, its only consistent allies being the Oneiros and Daredevil. Outside of this it’s fallen into BC core compositions, drone teams and Vindy compositions, finding success in all of them, whether this is an effect of the feeders bubble or if it will continue when flagships and other exotics rejoin the fray will be discovered in time.

 

Brutix Navy Issue

The BNI has seen mixed but prominent use throughout feeders, clocking a total 50 ships fielded, 46 of which were fielded as pairs. 59% of the time it was fielded alongside its partner from AT XIV the HNI and an 69% win rate with its old partner shows that these more typical BC cores are going strong. Its other stand out role over the weekend has been less gloriously faring in an all-in hull tank. Though spectacular when it works, honestly this match is so satisfying, it fell short on average as we’ve come to expect from such compositions over the years.

A 59% win rate flags it up as strong regardless, the high dps and huge application bonus combine to make a favourable platform as well as bringing a utility high for links in a meta where command ships are coming at even more of a premium than previous years. The strength of the BC core has been shown but the cost increases have lead to compromises being made, the HNI to Harbinger being a prime target of this, but with a win rate drop from 85% to 50% in the BC core comps it’s not been a successful substitution.

An interesting quirk of the BNI however has been its interaction or lack of with the Scimitar, though neither heavily banned by friendly or opposing sides, the Scimitar was banned in 71% of matches the BNI was fielded in, twice the independant rate. A 100% win rate in 3 matches it did square off against the Minmatar shield logi isn’t big enough to make bold statements off but could be the beginning of an interesting trend.

Vindicator

If the Bhaalgorn was the focal battleship of AT XIV then the focal battleship of AT XV is going to be the Vin- ahahah, no. The focal battleship of AT XV will remain the Bhaalgorn, with nearly, (frustratingly nearly,) 75% of flagships being the predicted flagsheep we will see them being the crux of match after match throughout AT XV. In the shadow on the control umbrella the Bhaal offers however lurks a deeper darkness, one with blasters and space brakes.

The Vindicator is receiving a remarkable 3 point cost reduction this year to bring it in at 20 points, battleships overall having been increased since AT XIV. Typically seen in its natural form sporting blasters and an armour tank benefiting from its incredible up close damage and control. We’ve also seen incredible hull tanks for all-in composition, and, kudos to Hole Control, shield tanked fits fielded to mixed success, though a win for shield. At a 60% overall win rate they’re strong in most comps where their face melting™ damage combined with incredible tank especially in a hull tanked configuration, 64% survival rate, leads to solid victories and close defeats. Overall they averaged a 25 point positive differential across their 15 matches, speaking to their ability to trade even in unfavourable situations.

Taking on 7 of its 15 matches as pairs, and 10 of them without a T2 cruiser behind them the 20 point cost of the Vindicator is still a hefty investment at the top end. With a need to fit in components such a tackle, logistics, links and potentially a bigger control umbrella Vindies will often be along at the top, the difficulties of fielding the Vindy with heavy support are complex. Perhaps the heaviest composition we’ve seen in the feeders came from Purple Headed Warriors fielding a Bhaal, double Vindy and Onerios, having to then build a support wing with only as many points as the Vindies themselves cost. Its cost curve can been seen steeply against even the command ship and battlecruiser heavy comp Digital Vendetta brought against it.

 

Short-Lived

Two ships have stood out through feeders for less glorious reasons have been the Gila and Kitsune however. Their 40% and 33% win rates respectively are respectable enough, but their stat lines turn sour when you reach survival rate. 0% for the Kitsune is unsurprising, the low buffer, high impact ships draw fire like a moth to a flame, even so far as being primaried in 50% of their matches they saw. These infact resulted in the 2 joint fastest kills in the feeders each at a mere 11 seconds.

By contrast the Gila is a far less appealing target. Getting an effective buff from AT XIV, with the relaxing of rules on damage drones, means they are a highly effective damage platform. The combination of this with the tank bonus, pirate ship stat line and favourable slot layout provides durability however and can let them be a solid package of strong resists and raw hit points. With a strong tank and an incredible amount of ehp in their drone bay Gilas can often be relied on to hang in a fight and provide their damage for a long while.  

In the feeders however we’ve seen quite the opposite, despite their 40% win rate they have managed a mere 10.5% survival rate dying in an average of 03:24 when lost. The pressure to try and compress everything the Gila is on TQ into an AT passable package is tough, feeling pressure to be heavier tackle along with fitting improved application, cap support and potentially even remote support suites pushed onto them squeezes the tank or incredible application fits out. As the meta leans more and more towards high damage, high application teams however with Navy Battlecruisers, Command Ships and Vindicators becoming prevalent tankiness for a cruiser may not cut it.

Quad BC Comps

Speaking of those high damage, application compositions AT XIV’s meta defining Navy BC cores have made a strong return. A 66.7% win rate looks good, and when you take our their mirrors an 83.3% rate looks even better. Their traditional form has had to adapt however, with a Bhaal, T2 Logi and 4 N.BCs coming in at a whooping 92 points across 6 ships, the 2 points per ship it leaves for a full comp is a blow perhaps softened by the cheapness of the Daredevil at least. Last year the same core would have cost 86 points, opening up 75% more points in the support wing and allowing wider use of options like bombers, interdictors and EAFs. As such this core has been seen only one in the feeders, with most teams making sacrifices elsewhere to preserve their T2 logi.

Bhaals, ‘Geddons and Vindys were all fairly scarce with no other battleships being picked above the BC core. Command ships proved more popular, but with the sheer abundance of links in these comps they fall more into the same role as the comps that brought additional T1 Battlecruisers, combat and attack variants, additional high application damage to compensate for the lack of application support.

We have seen options with T1 and Frig Logi to good success, and No Logi to far less success. Freeing up 5-7 points can be crucial in allowing a balance between a functional core and potent support wing. However we see here an amplification of the changes than will define this year’s meta shift with Logistics and other high end hulls having their point values increased the already tight BC cores are simply feeling the squeezes most.

 

Frigate Logi

Growing in popularity in recent years, especially with the addition of their T2 variant 18 months ago, Frigate Logistics is a choice that’s been watched very expectantly throughout feeders. We’ve seen 8 pairs picked throughout feeders to mixed success, their 37.5% win rate isn’t glorious but is far from damning, especially on such a small sample size. Their low points cost is often their main draw, reflected in the fact 75% of their matches have seen them picked alongside pirate battleships, the most points expensive ships in the AT.

We’ve seen an incredible mixed set of approaches to Frigate Logi, with BC cores, traditional Battleship top ends, Vindicators and more exotic compositions. Predominantly shield compositions with Kirins that have fared poorly, though the one scalpel pair picked up a loss. A 20% win rate brought to us by an incredible Day 1 performance from Bright Side of Death.  A nearly perfect performance that began with an incredible 17 second logistics headshot and was marred only by the loss of their Kitsune before closing the match in less that 4 minutes.

On the armour side things have performed better, with a totally homogenous selection of Deacons getting a 66.7% win rate, mirrored in their survival rate. For the class as a whole survival rates, at 43.8% have been a little higher than win rates, with the weaker reps and incredible damage mitigation leading teams to simple punch past them.

This is a stark contrast to their cruiser sized brethren who have win rate, 54.2%, drastically above their survival rate, 30.6%. The ablative use of logistics is of no surprise to veteran followers of the AT however. Unlike in day to day use on TQ Logistics in the AT have little hope of being able to permanently sustain their teams against a full composition, so they work with the local tanks of their team, EWAR support and positional damage mitigation to buy time. If a Logistics cruiser is destroyed its job is to die slowly, trading its role of adding ehp to its allies with one of simply being ehp that needs to be destroyed first.

Despite this trend Logistics Frigates have been primaried in proportionately as many matches as their less survivable cruiser counterparts, 25.0% for cruisers to 23.6% for frigates. A potential explanation for the high value for the frigates, despite less overall kills on them, is that more teams are likely to test them to see if their low ehp pools can be broken, simply to force movement from a ship with a lower potent range or naive of the difficulty of applying to such small targets.

 

Drone Comps

After a couple of years relegated to the drawing board by a ban on T2 damage drones drone compositions will be returning this year to a mixed welcome. Rejoining a meta where logistics, command bursts, points values, and even team sizes have changed since their last period of dominance. Despite this we are immediately seeing some comps that dominated previous years with Vexor hull teams showing their teeth scoring a 71% win rate alongside the VNI(Vexor Navy Issue) and Ishtar, a pairing itself that has a 67% win rate.

In fact drones compositions overall have achieved a very reasonable 63% win rate across their 19 games, jumping to a 73% win rate on armor. This is unsurprising as the largest ranges of drone ships belong to Amarr and Gallente with the Gurista’s pirate line provide the only truly native shield tanked drone boats. Despite this drone boats have done respectably on shields with the Ishtar and VNI taking well to the shield tanks, though the only attempt to field the full Gurista offering fell rather flat for Iron Armada.

Meta Efficacy

So the first stats blog I wrote, back for the 2nd NT season, I tried to include a snapshot of the season with a graph of win and pick/bans rates for each ship. Doing such a thing for these ships would be possible– in fact one moment, here it is:

Now. This isn’t that useful as a whole is is? Well, it might be interesting if we could make it even bigger. However with a bigger ship pool and the far higher variance in fittings it’s nothing like as useful. Instead my best offering might be this.

Though I will admit now to uncertainty regarding some of my assignments, (I didn’t get to watch every match and this was retroactively constructed, something that won’t be happening again) I feel this gives a stronger sign of what’s occurring in the meta of the Feeders. For some clarity I’ll break down the labels here.

  • Armor

Teams based around armor tanked ships with either armor logistics or local armor tank, featuring enhanced utility from freed up mid slots and usually reduced reliance on capacitor for tank.

  • Shield

Teams based around shield tanked ships with either shield logistics or local shield tank, read ASB, basically ASBs, featuring greater mobility and damage though often being more cap reliant for resistances.

  • Hull

Teams build around hull tanked ships, will typically huge ehp pools traded against agility and lacking meaningful hit point regain mechanics.

  • Traditional

The grouping I feel least sure of, this is covering a number of classical compositions but they are defined by having a multiple battleship top end that provides the bulk of the team’s damage with strong application and projection. This is most frequently represented by the TFI top end but can also include ships such as the N’Apoc’ or Nightmare. It also includes T2 logistics, a links ship, and then a standard looking support wing including at least some tackle and/or anti-tackle.

  • BC Core

A style emerging in AT XIV, this has been slightly expanded as a definition from the traditional quad navy BC and Flaggorn. Here it qualifies any team using at least 4 navy battlecruisers or other battlecruiser hulls as a high application, well projected, high damage core. These compositions are typically taken along with T2 logi and have an abundance of links due to their BC core.

  • Flykiller

A specific comp from past years that combines application support with high application to provide a potent threat against small targets, this typically involves a mix of light missiles, standard or rapid, and medium artillery to volley through small targets even under logi and win the support war early.

  • Drone

As it sounds, compositions that get the vast majority of their damage from drones, typically able to field a large amount of raw damage compared to other styles because they can invest in high damage lower point hulls in the mid range. The down side of the drones is their destructible nature and the flight time of drones, as well as typically the loss of logistics drones to support their team that missile or turret teams will often use. In exchange they get a damage platform that does not fall off with range and can apply independent of their team’s movement.

  • Vindy

Having such a heavy points reduction this year it’s no surprise comps have been popping up around the Vindicator. These are similar in silhouette to traditional compositions but play out very differently, the close range but intense damage and control that Vindicators offer tilts these towards brawling bruisery play rather than the more conservative play from range and reliance on support wing tackle you’d see from traditional comps.

  • CS Top End

Again a variation on Traditional compositions, these with the points increases trade the top end battleships for Command Ships, sacrificing some damage but receiving, often, a higher application, certainly a more mobile damage platform with command bursts bundled into that same package, this allows for increased investment in a support wing that will often bring supplemental damage.

  • RLML Spam

Compositions that go all out bringing a huge number of Rapid Light Missile Launchers before using their strong range, application and high burst dps to blast through ships. Unlikely to been seen in AT XV itself due to an incoming nerf these compositions do well at breaking logistics and hazing support.

  • All-In

Something that will always bring a smile to my face and many others watching, these compositions throw caution to the wind focusing entirely on maximising their damage and how to apply it. Often they will turn to hull tank to provide large buffers without having to rely on reps or links but will occasionally use bonused buffer tanks from armour and shield or ancillary boosters to provide their durability. Explosive to watch and typically decided quickly these matches are worth looking out for.

  • Tinker

Something more common in past years Tinkers are, usually, short manned compositions that prioritise survivability. In previous years they’ve typically been based around T3 Cruisers with their Adaptive remote repair sub systems, but a blanket ban on remote reps on T3Cs this years has all but killed the typical tinker. (Much to Bei’s delight.) A reintroduction of energy transfers this year has unlocked the other half of the classical tinker however. These teams aim to maintain a permanent tank by using cap transfers to support their heavily tanked logistics as well as numerous tank links and high resistance tanky ships. With typically low dps it is important to note if a Tinker forfeits any points by not spending 100 as many matches that involve them can go to time with no ships destroyed. Reliant on their durability and specific positioning Tinkers face a great threat this year in the point reduced Vindicator which can disrupt positioning and provide tank breaking damage. They will be an interesting rarity in AT XV if they are seen.

  • Pseudo Tinker

Taking the ideas of the tinker but not fully investing results in these comps. Using cap transfers and links to maximise the tank of their logistics but not tying the entire team to it, often giving the task of providing cap to a pair of Battleships who will stay with the logistics. This however hobbles the logistics mobility or that of aggressive battleships.

  • Frig Logi

Not a composition in and of itself but a modification to given style. Compositions that take Frigate Logistics make a much deeper change than those that trade T1 for T2 cruisers, the creation of the self reliant pair of ships as well and the massively reduced range compared to cruiser logistics leads to compositions that are typically made to skirmish as a group, being able to deal damage while keeping the team together and safe away from the hard tackle that might be the death of their fragile Logistics Frigates.

  • Cruiser Support

Another modification to a comp, this modification has been made possible in the AT XV rules more than in any previous year. With cruisers reduced to a mere 4 points, on par with Assault and Pirate Faction Frigates, and even less than Command and Tactical Destroyers, they have been a valid choice as tackle or even supplemental damage at only 1 point more than a Stealth Bomber. The choice to field these exclusively however and forgo the higher mobility and potentially greater anti-tackle potential of a frigate support wing can leave a team sluggish and slow to respond to faster more skirmish oriented compositions.

  • Misc.

With any game space as astronomically large as that of EVE even within the AT restrictions there will always be something that can’t be classified easily into the prominent meta groups whether it’s through obscurity or simple because it’s not taking an effective shape. As such the Miscellaneous group is formed.

  • (Short)

A label more than a style, this has been attached to teams that chose to run short manned with less than the full 10 team members. Typically a decision made due to points restrictions not allowing for a 9th or 10th player with the existing points invested it can also be a goal in teams such as Tinkers or All-Ins where low points ships are fragile and easily lost so the points are concentrated into fewer ships.

 

Looking at the graph through an analytical lense we are seeing prominent performances from BC Cores, Drone Comps, and unsurprisingly, Armor overall. With both of those most winnin– Nope. Nope. –most successful metas being natively, or classically armor based. We can expect to see more of these going into the AT itself, and the Oneiros, and to a lesser degree Guardian, being even more of a focal point.

Hull and All-In compositions performing poorly go hand in hand, inherently there is a reason why they aren’t seen as the norm. We will likely see even less of these in the AT itself as the quality of teams improves and the appeal of a chance victory that day one of the feeders had fades into the past. Comparatively the appearance, and success, of Vindy and Cruiser supported compositions both of which have been introduced to a large degree by the AT XV rule changes points to us seeing more of them as the AT XV meta crystallizes in the month of play to come.

Performing poorly and picked rarely the feeder performance of the Fly Killer and RLML Spam compositions has likely been their death knell, with each losing key components to changes before the AT as well we are unlikely to see more of them unless a team can come up with a true adaption of them to the new rules and new EVE that we will have come AT XV.

Tinkers and even Pseudo Tinkers sit in an odd position; though unsuccessful in the Feeders each have a following of teams that rate them and have shown them to perform well in previous years. The readdition of energy transfers may see the Pseudo Tinker tried by more teams but a lack of performance here may lead to a loss of confidence, closed door practise and theorycrafting may have a bigger impact in the end however. Both stand to receive a meta disturbing addition as we move into the AT proper though with the addition of unique ships. The Etana and Rabisu especially might well be seen in exotic Pseudo or pure Tinker compositions that are simply impossible with vanilla ships.  

 

Exotics

Overall the biggest disturbance to the Feeder meta going into the AT itself will be the additional of Exotics. Though practise and theorycrafting will refine the comps and may yet yield surprises, exotics such as flag Bhaals and AT ships open up options that are simply impossible with standard tools.

The flag Bhaals and ‘Geddons, together over 90% of flagships, however will bias the meta even further into the armor, making Oneiros, Guardian and even the Rabisu crucial picks and bans to support these flagships. Though an enhancement to any composition they fit into these control oriented battleships will likely be most powerful in the BC core compositions where they can be made to fit on points and will enhance the headshot ability and reinforce the projection of their teams.

The remaining 5 flagships include a pair of Vindicators, with comps around them looking strong the enhanced flagship versions are a solid evolutionary though not revolutionary upgrade. 2 SNIs and a Rattle make up our diminutive shield contingent, with only SAMURAI SOUL’d OUT, Dream Fleet and Hole Control placing faith in a shield tanked flagship. Traditionally tournament stables the SNIs look to be strong enough ships, with the teams that picked them in previous years being both a minority and high finishing, of sorts. The lone Rattlesnake has regained potency this year with the relaxed drone rules and follows the same mold though without such a storied history.

Special Matches

To go from the uniqueness of the Rattlesnake pick to the uniqueness of three interesting matches before I round this blog out. There are 3 matches that jump out from and stats point of view, and we were lucky enough to catch each on stream.

 

The prize of fastest match of the Feeders, likely AT XV and potentially AT history, (though I wasn’t doing stats for that so I wouldn’t know.) goes to the Blades of Grass victory over An Alliance Has No Name. An absolute stomp that resulting from a Tinker from An Alliance Has No Name warping at 0 on top of a blaster all-in from Blades of Grass. The incredible blaster damage would have been painful enough but in keeping with the AT XV theming Vindicators and Daredevils were slipped into the Blades of Grass composition shutting out any hope the Tinker might have had. Within 17 seconds the Basilisk was broken and in a little over a minute more only wrecks remained of the An Alliance Has No Name team.

 

With more than half of all the boundaries violations in the feeders this match was a rollercoaster of surprises the heavy Frigate Logi team of Men with Fancy Hats were out ranged and out paced by Legio Astartes Arcanum’s shield and RLML centric comp. Reliant on their two Vigilants, the fastest tackle they had, to secure tackle and so position on the kiting shield team things were an an interesting state as the traded them for the isolated scimitar of Legio Astartes Arcanum. Overall however they had won the positional battle and with long range webs and speed on their side Legio Astartes Arcanum looked in a favourable position with no tackle or long range damage against them. In a moment this was all lost however as the tightly grouped team hit the boundary together, losing 8 ships in the course of 4 painful seconds and bringing the match to a premature end with only 2:30 on the clock.

 

A rare occurrence given the sheer size of the game space that the AT takes place in this match between Red vs Blue and Requiem Eternal as both teams bring the exact same hulls to bear. Careful examination of the Fancy UI though begins to split the teams with Requiem Eternal bringing some more control and less damage than Red vs Blue. Both solid and well rounded drone comps the early stages were spent playing for position as their drone swarms seek targets. This broke down as Red vs Blue went for the Guardian of Requiem Eternal, breaking it while it tried to MJD away on a beacon. Red vs Blue stalled out their damage however even with the logi advantage they trade two Ishtars for a VNI from Requiem Eternal. Left behind on DPS they took out out the Eos at the top of Requiem Eternal team taking out links and leaving the rest of the team even more vulnerable. Red vs Blue still suffered to the damage of Requiem Eternal losing both Vexors for just one from Requiem Eternal. The choice of Requiem Eternal to spread out and increase flight times likely all that saved the match for them buying themselves time while Red vs Blue couldn’t deal damage providing a valuable substitute for reps as they finally broke the Guardian of Red vs Blue. Going into the last two minutes only Hyena and Eos remained for Red vs Blue while Requiem Eternal hold an Ishtar along with both Huginn and Hyena and even a Vexor leaving them with much more control and damage despite similar remaining defenses. Trading Hyena for Vexor Requiem Eternal had a solid points leads that they managed to play out for a victory at time. The 10 point margin the narrowest of Day 1 and third of the Feeders overall, a fittingly close match for mirrored compositions.

In Conclusion

Overall a much appreciated return to the AT format the AT XV feeders have had their share of spectacular moments. We’ve seen diverse compositions using a considerable 45% of the ship pool available. We’ve seen performances from more and more varied teams than ever before, with a whopping 88 teams looking to see play over the whole of AT XV.  We’ve seen nearly 900 ships compete and more than 550 ships destroyed already, and with Tinkers on the out and Vindicators on the rise we are in for an explosive and incredibly destructive AT to come.

Complete Information Season 2 Stats Blog

Are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin.

Originally intended to be a brief summary of the season this has become something of a magnum opus in the eyes of those around me as more and more data has been pulled, collated, corrected and finally analysed. As such, this may slightly exceed the intended length and ramble on, I hope only to keep it interesting throughout and present my take on the brilliant season through the lens of statistics.

 

The Only Points That Matter: Final Standings

Of course the only numbers that matter at the end of the day are league points, they decide our winners and track our season. Winning the Major League with 23 of a potential 28 points is The Other Team. Meanwhile Exodunks take the Minor League with 21 points.

The match wins that can be seen here effectively represent how the scores would line up without bonus points for dominations and show how, especially in the Major League, these bonus points are key in differentiating an otherwise very tight field. Though eventually not an issue the domination wins of Team Johnny and Clevergirls would have left them tied for 4th to be split by Pf. Comparatively V0LTA’s pair of domination victories put them above Provi-Shotz and earnt them 10 additional prize skins.

Overall, despite the outliers in 1st and 8th, the Major League was insanely tight with only 6 points between 2nd and 7th. The Minor League was a more diverse field, but even they found 3rd and 4th divided by but a single bonus point. In total 18 bonus domination points were awarded throughout the season; enough to place 2nd in either league.

Pf(Points for) against Pa(Points against) makes a rather satisfying graph. The S shaped curve follows what you’d expect and bar one team, which I’ll explore later, there are few deviants. In fact it was so consistent I went on to compare the actual Pfs to predicted Pfs based on the average Pf in wins and losses and a team’s record.

Seen here the predictions hold up fairly well, barring an aforementioned selection. Though this is potentially a product of a small data pool it also points to a consistent pattern of break points in matches that is simply a facet of the format.

 

Red vs Blue: Theorycrafting Really Is All That

One of the hot button topics throughout the season has been the Red vs Blue balance. Once more Bei gets to sit back and relax at the end of season as it miraculously comes out at a perfect 50:50. This seemed a distant thought when we reached the mid season with nearly a 70% win rate for Blue. However this has been turned on its head, especially for the major league where the win rate for Red has been over 85% in the second half of the season and the final day lead us to a full Red wash.

The onus for this shift has been in theorycrafting, Blue having the key first picks of Cruiser, that is to say logistics, and Battlecruiser allowed them to secure composition defining picks. Where Frigate and Destroyer were relatively uncontested groups Battleship could be controlled by the choice of logistics paired with the Blue side split double logistics ban we came to see so frequently. 26 out of 56 matches in fact, and 4 more where a double logistics ban hit just shield or armour rather than the more typical both.

This gave Blue the advantage as the format was felt out, able to find the key picks they needed to put together strong compositions and able to bully Red into potential suboptimal frigate picks left them in a strong position. This shifted around the midpoint of the Championship, though signs were there into Q2.

A number of strategies came together for Red side including: a shift in bans away from an initial theme of armour battleships, the use of frigate logi, griffin picks or afterburner fit frigates all contributed to mitigating or undoing the effects of the Blue side double logistics ban.

This combined with further testing and theorycrafting based around alternative picks, what Red could do after Blue had taken the tools they wanted began to come together to restore and even sway the balance between Red and Blue. With Red still feared when the coin flip comes around it’s been the focus of theorycrafting and swung round to become the dominant side, at least in the Majors.

The drafting differences between the Majors and Minors are quite startling with Blue side priority, and by extension Red side tendency, being almost mirrored. We have also seen more typical drafts from Red in the Majors, seeking logistics and playing out more normal games.

This divide between Majors and Minors in Red vs Blue winrate follows this idea that theorycrafting became the driving factor.  It’s not a difficult leap to take to say that our Major League teams put more in and are potentially just better theorycrafters. This is something that may become even more true next season as we see for the first time in this format a fully qualified Major League.

 

Armour vs Shield: A Question as Old as Ravens

So, the end of the season has come and we have an answer, armour is better, with over a 60% winrate. By comparison shield only manages a little under 45% bested even by the, admittedly shield based frigate logi picks and their 50%. Not picking Logi however has been, perhaps unsurprisingly, unsuccessful.

This can in part be traced back to the Red and Blue side priorities and win rates for the different leagues. The Blue dominated Minors prioritise armour on Blue, while the more Red dominated Majors prefer to pick Shield on Blue and leave Red to often pick armour. The Armour-Shield divide is most apparent in the Minor League however.

Compared to relatively even numbers in the Majors, Armour has a drastically higher win rate in the Minors and Shield is no longer breaking even. Surprisingly logistics frigates manage an even 50% in both Leagues, though typically the frigates were different, where the Bantam was the exclusive choice in the Major League the Minors saw the Burst in favour despite its worse record.

Interestingly the strategy of playing without logistics is more popular, and far more successful in the Major League. The sample is small enough that this statistic is artificially inflated by Phalanx’s hail mary compositions under Grookshank in the final weekend. However the additional success points to more practised and polished strategies, even for all in no logistics compositions.

Continue reading “Complete Information Season 2 Stats Blog”

Stats Blog 3rd Quarter

We will start the Q3 blog with a guest graph, provided for us this week by LL Anum, captain of the Power Ducks team. Here we see the improvement of the Lazerhawks team across the first three quarters of the Minor League Championship. From a difficult start against NT Cup champions Nasty Boyz and Minor League leaders Exodunks they have shown an improvement in form, taking a crucial win against Footwork. Most recently there was a huge upset in the battle of animal teams as the Fusion Pigeons defeated Sudden Otters.

Looking forward this climb in win rate can be extrapolated to a 150% rate in Q4 of this season. If Uber Kestrels do in fact win 3 of their upcoming 2 games; we will have a very interesting table indeed with them even challenging for the top spot if all 3 are dominating victories. This would be scary for teams such as Clevergirls and The Other Team who, though they look to be strong competitors into next year’s Major Leagues, won’t be able to compete with up to 80 points that the Torchlight Buzzards could get out of 28 that are available to most teams.

 

On the other hand, extrapolation is like the arena boundary, there are some merits to flirting with it, but jumping in head long is a danger that the Hyper Geese should know all too well.

 

So to depart from the realms of fantasy and return to the realms of analysis. We will start this week with an ever present but generally less and less surprising graph. Armour is still more successful than shield, shield a little more popular, frigate logi hit and miss and no logi means little success.

So how about we mix things up a little here and look at side popularity for the two main meta styles.

Though initially quite mucky this graph shows some interesting points. One of the interesting ones is the zagzag property of it. This is reflected in the comparison of picks between the minors and majors overall, pointing to distinct priorities within their own drafting metas. This can be broken down more clearly below.

Okay, the word clearly may have been optimistic here. This graph shows the meta choices in given scenarios. Divided between Red on the left, Blue on the right, Minors on the top and Majors on the bottom the quadrants break down the metas played. Here you can see the distinction between Majors and Minors fairly clearly.

 

In the Majors we see a strong tendency towards Blue shield and Red armour. In the Minor’s this gets flipped with Blue choosing more often to go Armour and Red taking shield. Though we see some variation in Blue picks with shield still making up a fair number of their picks the Minor Red side doesn’t vary onto armour often, taking it less frequently than either frigate logistics or logiless compositions.

 

We also see that frigate logi has never been taken on the Blue side of the draft. Despite the fact no logi compositions have been. These are a little anomalous however. With the Major League example being taken by The Charlatans after their draft was sadly derailed by connection issues. The Minor League example was an interesting no holds barred match between Footwork and Make Amarr Great Again, in which no form of logistics was picked. And interesting look at what eve tournaments might be.

 

Returning to the chronology of it all however you see two growing trends across the season. Blue shield and Red armour. This has been a fairly constant thing in the Major League, and something we can expect to see in the finals for sure, but both have been growing in popularity in the Minors. In fact only in Q3 have we seen a Minor League team get an armour composition on red side. Plasma Falcons in their aforementioned victory over Sudden Otters and Exodunks in their dominating victory over Footwork.

 

Inevitably this had lead to declines in Blue armour picks as >95% of Blue side compositions include logistics so there is little neutral ground between the shield and armour camps.

 

Returning to the subject of extrapolation there is one piece of extrapolation that I feel I can safely make. The Other Team will continued to the end of the season undefeated. So far undefeated, though more bloodied in their latest 15-4 victory over second place Clevergirls than in any match so far. Having secured the victory the final match in securing this incredible season will be against Phalanx, a team that has so far been unable to pick up victory.

 

The Other Team’s undefeated reign is hard to pin on anything in particular, if only because in a record with no losses there is a lack of contrast with which to find what they have been doing well. Splitting their matches into red and blue side matches however gives lead to something we can analyse:

 

Thrasher, Osprey, Ferox, Rohk, Every, Single, Match, (Nearly).

Typically an AB frigate will be added to this. And this is the only team we’ve seen go so far in their faith in this little sub-class of ships as to pick the Kestrel when Team Pretty picked the more favoured Slasher away. Together this provides an incredibly strong team, with the support wing mixing survivability with decent highly applicable damage, and a top end that synergizes with its core to put damage where it’s needed.

 

However we also see adaptability. Against V0LTA the Rokh is overlooked for a Typhoon, whose huge long range damage allowed them to instantly attack the weak link of a shield tanked Dominix at the top end of the armour composition V0LTA drafted. The choice of the Typhoon here allowing them to apply pressure to a long range ship that would have been able to avoid the point blank damage of a Rokh.

 

On Red side their play has been more interesting to look at. Though a match against Provi-Shotz saw them take shield it was a compromised version of their blue side standard. This involved giving up the Ferox to their own bans and the Thrasher to Provi-Shotz picks, though getting their critical Osprey logi due to a more open banning phase by Provi-Shotz.

 

Typically however they’re forced into armour by the standard Blue side double logi bans and shield preference. Here we’ve seen them damage control in their draft and produce solid armour meta compositions, including the now classical drone boat destroyer and battlecruiser picks. We also saw them throw a considerable curveball against The Charlatans, with an effectively used Griffin pick.

 

We see them placing greater value on the Ferox than many other teams, always banning it when red and always picking it when blue. I believe this speaks to the priorities of the team. While the Ferox is no longer the dominant force that is was, having dropped to a 55% win rate, it is the only valid skirmish link platform by many accounts. In that it brings the ability to enhance benefits of piloting well, by improving damage mitigation and allowing better control of positioning.

 

By controlling this Ferox pick The Other Team solidify their goals for each match, to out-pilot their opponents. And with an undefeated record, and the Championship in their pocket, it’s hard to argue they aren’t the team to do it. Drafting a solid team in each of their matches they ensure that are at least not disadvantaged and take what advantages they can and allow skill to bring them the victory. As such their drafts are rarely anything spectacular but their matches often are.

 

In recent weeks we’ve seen Red side securing more victories and gone are the weeks of 5-2 and 6-1 biases for Blue side. A key factor in this has been an understanding of the Meta for teams. Early on the Blue side power of first picking the Logistics cruiser and Battlecruiser allowed them to control the top end of an unrefined game space in the draft. With both of these being crucial to defining a composition, if a team ends up being without the picks they want here and lacks good substitutes, they’d be at a significant disadvantage, as Red side often found themselves in early weeks.  

As we’ve seen the Championships progress we’ve seen the Red side become more versatile, but by no means less effective than Blue. Frigate logi, still picked exclusively from the Red side has given them options to move around the double logi bans Blue side so often throws out. A better understanding of power picks has refined their banning away from the pure armour battleship bans of early weeks. Though the void between the sides still exists in the Minors where over 60% of matches go to the Blue side; in the Majors there isn’t even a 5% margin between them. Shown in the chart earlier the Red side in the Minors is the most varied between the metas, inevitably this causes them problems, especially a large number of drafts taking the unsuccessful no logi comps.

 

You can pin this lack of adaptability in the Minor League to a single stat potentially. The number of unique ships which each team has picked is nearly 20% higher in the Major League. The ability to adapt a composition as required and not lean on specific picks match to match is a strong one. Even in the Minors, comparing the top 4 teams to the bottom 4 teams reveals a 10% difference in the number of unique picks.

 

Though of course a factor which would have diminishing returns, being able to comfortably use a variety of ships and compositions gives you the tools to take advantages in the draft or at least mitigate damage. This should of course be taken with a pinch of salt as teams will have trained compositions and options they have not played.

 

With that in mind a few interesting statistics, especially so late in the season, do emerge. Sadly in the last week Team Johnny have lost not just a match to Clevergirls but also the title of most varied team. Clevergirls have overtaken them and have now played more than 30% of the available ships for the format.

 

At the other end of the spectrum Team Pretty and Make Amarr Great Again have never played a shield based composition. In fact Make Amarr great Again have only picked 12 different ships throughout the Championship, 30% down on the overall average of 17.5. Impressively true to their name they have suck to just one Amarr frigate for the entire championship: the Punisher.

 

On a bittersweet note the compromised draft by The Charlatans did produce the most unique single draft of the tournament with 4 unique picks. Only by having picked the Talos in the Battlecruiser slot could it have been made an utterly unique team.

With the Finals ahead of us we could see the most volatile week yet in terms of drafting with teams throwing out hail marys. Or, with so much data to draw on, we could see some of the most calculated and optimized drafts yet. Personally I hope to see teams focus on what they are comfortable with to try and maximise their capacity to out-pilot opponents.  But this is EVE and min-maxing is what we do, so we can expect nothing less here, I’m sure. With everyone from Exodunks to the Tesla Coil Owls fighting for position in the Minors and Cleversgirls through to Team Pretty still battling for it in the Majors there is a lot on the line.

Stats Blog Midseason Special – Aleksi Aksan

So, we’ve finished Q2 and come to the mid-point of the season, here some sporting leagues might take a rest week, run an invitational, or otherwise break up the pace. Here, we are simply going to keep throwing the teams against each other until they break. My tip is to watch Brett Thomas Thomas, as a commentator he tends to fall off in the 7th game of an evening so his 7th game of the season could be one to watch.

After great encouragement from those who read this blog in its development I’ve been asked to warn you all; make sure you have snacks and a drink as this is a hell of a blog that comes with both pretty charts and recommended viewing to break it up. And I’ll say this now, end of season is likely to be worse.

Returning to the realms of match statistics however I’d like to start this blog as I did the one before. With a look at how the overall meta is shaping up. With two more weeks of play and time to react this should potentially give us an oversight of how the season will go on:



We see a fairly even split between shield and armour now and each maintaining roughly even records with no logi set ups falling far behind.  It is worth noting all of the frigate logi set ups have been shield oriented, 3 being Burst picks, 2 for and 1 against the Sudden Otters in the Minors, and a Bantam for V0LTA in the Majors.

 

In all nothing major can be drawn from this that we didn’t already know. Logi is strong and popular, running without it is rarely successful. Frigate logi has had mixed success but isn’t as popular or quite as successful as it’s cruiser counterpart.

 

One major shift this last week has been that of the Red vs Blue stats. Where it was previously drastically in favour of the blue side of the draft it’s now swung back to a mild edge for red, 4 and 3 for the past week. Potentially a sign that the imbalance in the draft was not a true one, and simply created by teams not understanding the meta and so setting up power on the blue side of the draft where they are now stripping it away.

On the other hand this may be a blip in an overall trend. The next quarter will be interesting to watch to see if it was. For now it points to an abatement in the howling dogs that seek Bei. And if it continues it could see the tournament level out, something the meta seems to only now be doing.

Recent bans have seen a significant shift, no longer leaning so heavily on early battleship bans and instead seeing a more balanced approach across the entire upper end of ships. This includes a far greater balance between shield and armour than was previously present. This is likely a major contributor in the recent trend of losses for shield composition as they no longer have such free access to their key and desired ships as they did.  

A key example of this came in Clevergirls vs Team Johnny, where a brutal draft left Team Johnny with limited options for their battleship choice. The primary three choices for shield battleships, the Rokh, Tempest and Typhoon, had all been banned out, two by Team Johnny themselves. The arguable 4th choice shield battleship in the Hyperion had been taken out as well. Off this Team Johnny ended up taking the Raven, a unique pick. Though Battle Dog may well have had a solid plan in taking it; the Clevergirls team were likely not too unhappy seeing such an unfavoured pick come out and took a dominating victory in the match.

The Osprey has felt defeat in the last fortnight, losing its undefeated record as well as its perfect protector status in the Major Leagues. Whether it has fallen to sustained pressure or overwhelming firepower the losses of the Osprey can be attributed to losses for the shield meta in general as well as a decoupling from the Ferox links that give it such strong damage mitigation, forced by a more aggressive and switched on draft.

In the last two weeks we’ve seen the Ferox fall a little from grace as well. Taking a record of only 1 from 5 in the last fortnight and picking up 6 bans in the process the Ferox no longer has the free reign it once did. Both numbers speak to teams reacting to its presence in the meta. Whether they take The Other Team approach of locking it away with pre- emptive bans, perhaps key in their two red side victories against shield teams last week, or simply smash through its team, the Ferox is no longer an unknown and unchecked element.

One of the biggest shifts coming into this season of the Championship has been the addition of bursts to battlecruisers. With the rework and introduction of piloting skill to their use, they have been added to the combat battlecruisers offering team wide benefits and versatility from the new scripting mechanic. This has lead to a dramatic shift towards the Combat Battlecruisers over the more damaging and maneuverable Attack Battlecruisers.

The choice of burst ship has shown a considerable bias in the kind of links teams are looking for with more than 80% being taken by the various tank bursts and 33.3% by the Ferox alone. This last value points to the considerable strength of the new Ferox, as the other Skirmish Burst ship has only seen one pick in the Championship, losing that match.

The Skirmish links it brings however are of great value, leading to its sheer popularity, along with a self-synergistic fitting with good damage and tank. So desired has this ship become that captains have spoken seriously about taking it into armour compositions, though this may point more to the weaknesses of the Brutix.

Across the four weeks of play that we’ve seen though it’s become clear that the Combat Battlecruisers are here to stay. With the recent week of play showing both more bans and more defeats being handed to the Ferox expect it to drop out of favour somewhat, though its strength will always keep it close to the top.

A, perhaps surprisingly, popular trend has been that of taking off tanked battleships, that is a battleship that does not match the logistics of the team it fits into. This will often be done when a team feels their matching options are not sufficient and the benefits of an off tank ship outway the lost synergies. An interesting variation was the off tank Slasher taken by Clevergirls, intending to support it with logistics bots from the rest of the composition, it had mixed results. Though it’s potential value to throw off another team in the draft phase shouldn’t be underestimated.

The most popular choice for this has been the Hyperion, taken twice in shield comps during the championship and more in the recent EVE_NT Cup. Its nature as a strong, locally tanked, brawling platform has been key to this. Its large drone bay also allows it to interact with a shield team as it would armour by providing additional repping power.

The two other cases of this have been more interesting. Pandi taking an Apocalypse in an Offline shield comp during their match against Templis. Being an Amarr battleship it has a strong local tank and its nature as a long range sustained damage platform is unmatched in shield battleships beyond the already banned Typhoon, however the Tempest may be a contender. This to one side it took victory after an extended fight against TheLastSparton in Templis’ sole remaining Armageddon.

The final example comes from V0LTA in picking a Dominix into an armour composition. Annie Gardet piloted the recently changed Dominix, now a shield tank as it fell less than two minutes into the match against  The Other Team. Despite this it helped take out The Other Team logistics, an Osprey piloted by Anariasis, however V0LTA failed to make any more headway and were handed a loss with their damage so drastically reduced.

Another potential surprise has come in the low key, but regular, appearance of logistics frigates. Undefeated in the Majors, though with mixed results in the Minors, the choice to take frigate over cruiser logistics is one with risk and reward. The obvious risk being the reduced repping power, taking a 50% or more slash down from that of a cruiser equivalent before you start looking at the survivability of the logistics ship itself.

The less obvious risk is the lack of screening ships, due to the format taking such a frigate takes away from the sparse support wing teams have, meaning they have to seek equivalents in destroyer slot or else accept a slower tackle platform of a heavier ship. The benefit however is free pick of the cruiser slot, though free pick here can be roughly equivocated with the Caracal. A strong source of additional, potent and high application damage.

Generally considered the 5th valid cruiser pick this is key to most frigate logistics based set ups and what biases them all into the shield pick. It can provide the same kind of rush damage potential seen in the no logistics comps with additional staying power and the ability to go into the longer games far better. In a format where logistics can rarely offer absolute security the logistics frigates can be seen as a middle ground between the two extremes and so far it’s efficacy seems in a similar place.

Mid Season Lookback
Down to the wire: Longest Domination Match

Sudden Otters vs Exodunks

A demonstration of piloting skill in the elegant dance the two teams made for so much of the match. With the Rokh of Lord Colin held for so long by Deyze’s Slasher the match began to pivot around the Sudden Otters Battleship. However damage from Exodunks finally caught and the long stalemate began to fall apart as Nika NOisER was taken out, letting Exodunks snowball through. Then, in the final seconds, Lord Colin was taken out to secure a dominating victory, and prove once more that Rokh’s can be stopped. 9:56 was the final time making this the longest match we’ve had that finished due to ship destruction and we are unlikely to see longer, though we can hope.

Last Man Standing: Bloodiest Match

Team Pretty vs Team Johnny

A lesson in how to use a no Logi team from Team Pretty building huge damage potential in their comp and using it in a massive strike on the Typhoon of Battle Dog though the Oracle of Cyrics provides crucial damage for breaking the shields even trading Ancientlexy in the Rifter as well to bring it down. However this call panned out as they went on to break the Osprey, their own ships given considerable time by the removal of so much damage from Team Johnny. Eventually this trading left just Tehebil1 in a Ferox to contest Dxella in the Tempest, a bout won by Dxella as the neut pressure and immense damage of the Tempest finished off the fleeing Ferox. With only one ship left to hold the field this bloodbath was everything a rush comp hopes to achieve, massive destruction and an edge gained in the midst of it all.

Over In a Flash: Shortest Match

Power Ducks vs Nasty Boys

“One man deserves the credit, one man deserves to blame,” to quote a Tom Leher lyric. This flash in the pan hinged on an early mistake by anddor Hita, a mistimed Micro Jump Drive activation took his Hyperion out of bounds. With this major damage and control source out of the equation the Scorpion of killa542 provided the control, and with the Exequror of Artimus Albosa survivability, to take Nasty Boyz to victory. At 3:55 this was the quickest match of the Championship, making it at least a mercifully brief chapter in the Powers Ducks competitive record.

Did We Win?: Least Destructive Match

Exodunks vs Templis

Perhaps a look at how the previous match might have gone, this fight saw Templis take the slow methodical game plan with Scorpion and Exequror providing a lot of survivability for the team. However even with TheLastSpartan trying to disrupt with jams their damage wasn’t enough to break through to reps Per Ole could send out from a Scythe. Eventually against the more damaging and link reinforced team from Exodunks the Dragoon of Dale Sturtevant and the Oracle of Super Chair fell. Having dropped the 2 points of the destroyer early and failing to make the damage of the Oracle count to score any back before they lost it Templis ended up behind to a fully functioning composition of Exodunks. A testimony to the durability of the Scoprion Exequror pairing however that this endured though to time meaning this was the lowest scoring match in the first half of the Spring Championship.

Ship stats:
Picked: Talwar

The most seen ship of the tournament so far, bar the Apocalypse from the transition sequences, is the Talwar. Slipping into shield comps well and providing reliable damage the Talwar is a popular pick for its ability to get value in most compositions and relative survivability for its class.

Banned: Apocalypse

Arguably the most feared battleship, the supreme fire platform that is the Apocalypse has drawn 20 bans acrosses 28 matches. Being evenly banned by both sides speaks to the intimidation factor of this hull, with double application bonuses and a full rack of Mega Pulse Lasers it can put down considerable firepower on a multitude of targets. Outside of this it’s been picked into 6 matches with a strong record of winning 4 of them.

Wins: Rifter

The winningest ship of them all. Chalking up more wins than any other ship is the rifter with 10. A strong win percentage as well at 62.5% over its 16 matches. This can be attributed to the strength of the Rifter as a tackle frigate. Boasting a strong tank, though not on par with the Punisher or Merlin the Rifter crucially brings both a Scram and a Web allowing it to pin down ships harder than the tackle frigs that bring one or the other. This versatility and control power puts it on the top tier of tackle frigates.

Losses: Talwar

 

Chalking up 10 total losses is the Talwar, though not too surprising for the most picked ship the poor win rate across all of these points to its rather vanilla contribution to a composition. Bringing low level, high application damage on a survivable platform is valuable, but a lack of major utility and certainly not game changing damage leaves the Talwar in a filler category. Though rarely outclassed by any single ship it can be outclassed in most compositions by at least one. It is a pick that often loses to teams with a deeper understanding of their composition who will pick ships with stronger character and so stronger synergy.

Destroyed: Talwar, Algos

A dubious honour, the most destroyed ship is split between the Talwar and Algos with 11 loss mails each. With both seeing a huge number of picks 17 and 15 respectively this stat speaks little to the nature of the ships and more to the nature of the class. Sporting little tank improvement over the tougher frigates and a larger sig to boot they are vulnerable targets at most points in a match. Though the Talwar is a relatively survivable destroyer with its MWD bonus its position here talks to its high loss rate where it can be easily enough cleaned up later in a fight.

Survived: Ferox

Having survived the most matches is an accolade taken by the Ferox. The fact is has survived all 9 matches it’s won can be attributed to the strength of the Ferox’s most recent iteration. With a still solid tank, long range weapons and a skirmish link to enhance its mobility and survivability the Ferox can keep itself in a favourable position while dishing out strong damage. However every single loss it has suffered has involved its death pointing even more to its lynchpin position in a team composition and the value of, above other traits, its burst.

 

Team Stats:

 

Wins: The Other Team

Putting in a dominant performance at the top of the Major League the undefeated Other Team have so far picked up 4 wins from 4 games, both records uncontested in either league. Despite only 1 dominating victory The Other Team have dropped only 5 points across their matches so far, another record they hold.

 

Losses: ProviShotz, Phalanx, Power Ducks, Footwork

 

Holding mutual positions at the bottom of their respective leagues are four teams with something to prove. In the Majors ProviShotz and Phalanx are sitting at 0 from 3, with 4 matches to go there is potential for a change of form to keep either team in the Major league. However a matchup between the two in their schedules could prove crucial if they aim to retain their place in the Majors. In the Minors Power Ducks and Footwork sit at 1 from 4. With reasonably strong schedules to go these teams will have a tough road to securing a Major League place if they seek it. With a win under their belt each and half a season to go we are likely to see these teams proving they deserved a place in the League.

 

The performance of the Footwork team relative to the rest of the League does point to the sheer strength of the teams coming up from the EVE_NT Cup. As the only returning team in the Minor Leagues they’ve had their work cut out to keep up with the fresh blood. All in all this makes the idea of relegation more daunting for the Minor League teams, with requalification only possible through another brutal cup.

 

Varied: Team Johnny, Shout out Volta

 

The most varied team of the Spring Championship so far has been Team Johnny, picking a whopping 17 ships across 4 matches. These include every single logi cruiser as well as Championship unique picks like the Raven, Brutix and Atron, though the merit of these has been disputed. A special shout out however has to go to V0LTA who have so far never repeated a ship pick in their 3 matches.

 

Consistent: Templis

 

At the other end of the scale we have Templis, who have only picked 7 different ships in their 3 games, appearing set on a Rifter, Dragoon, Exequror, Oracle, Armageddon comp, only deviating when elements are banned away, however a Scorpion pick in their Exodus match is as major a deviation as one ship might allow.

I will wrap this up with the same graph I did before, the incredibly information rich meta summary that is this scatter plot. However this week I see a welcome improvement in it as the trend line no longer curves anywhere near so drastically. We also see a more level line. Overall this points to a better understood and more varied meta. Though we still have severe outliers, we see a huge variety of picks, the most contested picks are far from game endingdishing out strong damage. However every single loss it has suffered has involved it. The pool of played ships is growing broader, this is not to say new ships were picked, though we saw many unique picks in Q2, but we are seeing more play across a wider group of ships, and not just sporadic picks as the power picks are taken away,

 

In all we are seeing a meta level out, and certainly after the last week we go into the second half of the season far less sure of what is the path to victory. The Rokh, Ferox and Osprey have all been proved mortal, armour has proved itself still relevant and the red side of the draft has begun to hold its own. Well, we can hope. With four more weeks of competition we have a lot of space for upsets, position swaps and still more surprises to emerge from this Championship I’m sure.

Stats Blog Major League Week One – Aleksi Aksan

Aleksi Aksan – one of the newer EVE_NT Commentators, hits the keyboard to take a little look at the developing season two meta.

__________________

We start this week with a short quiz. The following unannotated graph represents what:

  1. The Minor League Red vs Blue record
  2. The Major League Red vs Blue record
  3. The overall Championship Red vs Blue record
  4. Fuel for fears of imbalance in the draft
  5. All of the above


Answers on a jetcan.(1)

Getting down to the meat of this week’s statistics we do see Red vs Blue go the way of nuclear half life and by some bizarre and ill-understood method give us consistent results. At 5-Blue, 2-Red we are seeing continued strength on that side of the draft, however we have seen a meta turned on its head between the first weeks of the Minor and Major Leagues. The overall meta is beginning to take a clearer shape with two weeks worth of matches behind it, though we are likely to see shake-ups still.


So we are seeing that teams most often pick armour, least often pick no logi (bolstered here even by the inclusion of Sudden Otters’ victory with a mere Burst to support them), but win most with shields. The body of this differentiation however has come with our first week of the Majors. Where last week in the Minors showed little to divide the meta types the top tier teams of the Major League have cut a clear divide between the styles. Armour remains most popular, and No Logi gets firmly relegated to third place. However the biggest shift comes from Shield, 2-2 in the Minors it’s been taken to 5-1 in the Majors by teams like Clevergirls and The Other Team, both claiming 2-0s for the week with shield teams over armour compositions.

Another key shift is the near exclusion of No Logi comps, the only one being taken unsuccessfully by Provi-Shotz after a Logi targeted draft by Team Johnny. Bar this every match of the week was a shield vs armour match, the better of which shield easily claimed. The only victory armour scraped back being in The Charlatans vs Phalanx.

So we’re seeing more of a priority placed on logistics. All four logistics ships falling into the top 10 most contested picks in drafting so far, with the Exequror being one of only two ships to achieve 100% pick/ban rate. Proving itself the prefered armour logistics pick across both leagues while only averaging a 50% win rate, certainly nothing to fault it for and far stronger than the 25% of its Amarrian cousin.

On the shield side of things however the logistics are feeling worlds apart. With similar pick/ban numbers, 10 matches for the Osprey to 9 for the Scythe, they’ve had radically different effects on the matches. The Osprey holds a 100% win rate across its 6 picks so far in the season, crushing the 1 win in 4 games of the scythe. Survivablity stats start to speak to the reason why.

The Scythe has not yet survived a match. Though a naturally fast ship, the speed granted by the MWD has rarely given it the tools needed to protect its buffer tank and outlast. The sig bloom of the MWD combined with a shield extender make it a good target compared to the other AB capable logistics and without recovery mechanics this damage often stacks up until it falls. As evidenced in The Charlatans vs Team Pretty where even without their support ships or ever achieving tackle Team Pretty were able to chew through the Scythe’s buffer in the final moments to score 3 more points despite losing the match.

The Osprey on the other hand is AB and XLASB fit, keeping minimal sig radius. However this no buffer fit leaves it exposed, as we saw in the NT cup, to being volleyed through if it can be pinned down. Surviving 50% of its matches and falling very often to the charge based nature of that XLASB the Osprey shows that unless countered hard it can do exactly what a logi is meant to do in this format and buy its team time. In the Major Leagues no Osprey has so far allowed any of its fleet to die while it remains on the field.

Moving on to look at why this has been such a drastic shake up and what we can expect because of it. Shield picks and strong shield teams from the blue side of the draft have been absent from the Minor League with only Offline taking blue shields in a well drafted match against Exodunks. A win however.

Fast forward to the Major Leagues and it is almost every game, achieving an 80% win record in the process. Part of what has allowed this is how open shield has been to pick into from the blue side, with the key logistics ship of the Osprey never being banned by the red side. What we’ve seen instead is a huge focus on banning armour battleships from the red side of the draft. With 5 matches seeing a full triple armour battleship ban from the red side including twice into shield comps. Though less extreme in the Major League, with closer to 60% than 80% of bans falling on armour, this still leaves blue side able to draft close to what they want with valuable 1st picks on the logistics and the battlecruisers slot.

And so comes the question, “what do they want to pick?” Well the answer, the dream team, is something like this. Merlin, Thrasher, Osprey, Ferox and Rohk, not just theoretical it can been seen in action in The Other Team vs Team Johnny. All ships battle proven and consistently performing with win rates over at least 5 matches. The core however is the Osprey and Ferox. With these ships lending each other survivability and the new weapons on the Ferox letting it provide a large sphere of influence with which to protect its logistics.

However like any good recipe this one can work with many alterations outside its vital core. Slashers are often brought in, with the AB based frigate a potent tackler in the right situation. The destroyer slot is also open, with the ever popular Talwar offering a pure damage option and the relatively unproven Corax being brought out to great effect by Liquid Ninja of Clevergirls, winning and surviving both of its matches.

At the top end the unstoppable[citation needed] Rokh provides a tanky damage powerhouse being edged out most often in favour of the more versatile Tempest that brings far more to the table in terms of speed, damage and utility, at the cost of significantly reduced tank.

Though looking strong so far the Major League teams have 2 weeks between clashes and you can be sure their scrims and theory crafting sessions put due time on breaking down such a composition fielded against them. With the second week of the Minor Leagues this weekend however we will have to see if this style of composition makes it down and if creative answers are to be found.

Returning to the competitive statistics we look at the top end of contested picks where, though we find most of the “dream team,” we rarely see them banned. Instead we see the big three armour battleships and the armour logi topping the table. The Ferox coming in a joint 4th draws far less bans than anything else in the top 10.

The biggest ban targets remain the Apocalypse and Abaddon. Both exceptional laser gun boats with solid tank their role in the pre-season qualifying cup was a strong one. However, with tweaks to the Abaddon since the cup and the Apocalypse showing only reasonable performances when allowed through, these may no longer be the powerhouse fire platforms they were, only time and more play can truly tell.

Unsurprisingly perhaps the armour logistics are hotly contested, with it being the core for the most popular compositions they will be contested until these fall out of favour. The Prophecy and also Algos make it up there, the armour drone boats being a strong element of the armour meta we saw develop through the Cup and into the Minor League.

Further down the list we begin to see the shield ships creep in, the Ferox as said drawing few bans for its efficacy and surprisingly the Scythe drawing more bans than the Osprey despite its poorer form. All in all there are no surprises at the top, but with a shield meta beginning to come out on top we may see more ban priority moving towards the key shield ships of the Osprey and Ferox.

The question remains however of the efficacy of these drafting strategies, with the most effective ships at the moment rarely being the most contested we should be seeing a shift in priority in the next few weeks towards those that are.

This final and incredibly data rich graphic points to that very fact. With win rates being strongest somewhat away from that top end of pick priority. This can however be distorted by contextually strong picks, teams letting strong picks through only to counter them and large meta shifts such as we’ve seen this week. What we are likely to see is a shift of pick/ban priority towards these strong picks. This will either end up focusing there or allow through enough of the ships that are currently being locked away to show their strength and allow a more diverse balanced meta.

Whatever comes to pass it’s clear shield is no longer going to be playing second fiddle to armour, logistics is here to stay, ECM hasn’t yet worked in the Major Leagues and anddor Hita has competition for greatest boundary violation by range.

(1) 5. All of the above.