AT XV Feeders Stats Blog

So, after a weekend of brilliant combat I was confronted with a week of real life responsibilities and then this…

I don’t like heat, me and heat don’t mix well, as my teammates will attest from AT practice. As such this compromised function is responsible for the delay in producing this sheet and any fever dream induced inaccuracies and flights of fancies within it. These are no relation to Bei and Nashh taking me out drinking, none at all.

 

Oneiros

So, without further delay on my part we’ll get into the meat of the stats from feeders. We’ll kick off with one of the most talked about ships of the weekend, the Oneiros, and this isn’t just because of a glitch in the stats sheets V1.0 that had it frequently being picked in 130% of matches it wasn’t banned in. (Sorry, Elise.) The Oneiros is the most popular ship in its class, in the pure number of teams picking it and close to the top even in absolute picks where its one off nature pulls it down the list.

At 1st for match picks, picks excluding bans, wins(though 2nd in losses) and then 4th in absolute picks and bans the Oneiros has been a defining ship of the feeders. Massively more popular than the Guardian, by nearly a factor of 3, it is a key ship within the armour team compositions. Picked in 64% of armour compositions the Oneiros’ nature as a logistics cruiser oriented towards self contained or solo usage lends itself naturally to tournament play. Its closest competitor, the Guardian, has seen a resurgence coming into the AT XV ruleset however, the reintegration of capacitor transfers unlocks the Guardian’s potential. Its short pair of mid slots work more effectively with external cap sourcing and allow it to work in the pseudo or semi tinker configurations we’ve begun to see reappearing as far more than a substitute for the prefered Oneiros.

Returning to the Oneiros itself we see it picked across a wide range of strategy from the traditional battleship top ended comps that have been worked into AT XV rules, to the drone comp resurgence and the BC(Battlecruiser) heavy cores. It’s no surprise that in 45% of its matches it was paired with the Daredevil, its competition for the most popular ship of the feeders, and one that is naturally armor tanked.

With 30% pick rates with both the BNI(Brutix Navy Issue) and HNI(Harbinger Navy Issue) and strong win rates with them, 70% and 80% respectively, the Oneiros is successful with the BC cored comps considering their 67% independant win rate. In general the 64% win rate of the Oneiros does little to buck the 61% armor comps have achieved overall. However a 43% rate of Oneiros picks facing another Oneiros drags its win rate down towards the 50% mark, outside its own mirror its win rate stands at a far more impressive 85%.

 

Daredevil

The other seemingly ubiquitous pick of the feeders was very much the flavour of the year, receiving a 2 point reduction in line with the Serpentis sponsorship of AT XV, the Daredevil is a pirate frigate that with a 50% cost reduction is priced as a T1 Frig.

Being one of the most agile frigates in the game and the reasonable durability that pirate ships get for their class, combined with its ability to field 90% stasis, a trait reserved for its own Serpentis kin or for those being very bold with battleships and grapplers, makes it a potent tackle frigate that can find application for most any heavy firepower behind it.

With this in mind the Daredevil is the only competition the Oneiros has for the top spot of match picks, 33, and it dwarfs it for absolute picks however with 50 Daredevils  being picked across the feeders they account for an incredible 5.59% of all ships picked. On average every match should have had a Daredevil in it, however 4 bans help put a stop to that, along with duplicate picks of course.

The Daredevil has become the default 2 point pick and its ubiquity has had a role in its 48% win rate without being a defining factor in teams a huge data set would be needed to start drawing conclusions on it. However it does have a perhaps unfavourable comparison.

Its competition for the 2 point armor tackle frigate slot is the Punisher, a less popular pick, seeing play for only 18 ships across 10 teams. It’s 70% win rate suggests success beyond that of the Daredevil, but with 30% of its matches being alongside the Daredevil and a 67% win rate there it is fulfilling a role not only as an alternative but an accompaniment in teams that are taking a very large tackle wing.

The Punisher fares better for survival in the match up, 39% to 36% is little benefit, however an average lifetime of 4:53 dwarfs 3:19, talking not just to how much more survivable they are but how much less teams want to be shooting them. Though the heightened potency of the Daredevil may be the counterpoint to this.

 

Armageddon

One of the winninge– No. No. Can’t. Not today. The Armageddon is one of the most successful ships of the feeders, the only ship to maintain a 100% win rate over more than 3 matches it kept it for all 7 matches it’s been picked it. Bringing the kind of long range capacitor warfare potential that we only otherwise see on flagship Bhaalgorns it’s found a solid place in the compositions that would traditionally rely on on their flagsheep. A 4 point increase in the points cost of the Bhaal along with a ban on flagsheep in the feeders has put it in a favourable position to take the role.

Its use in such a role has also seen some clever tactics, only one friendly or opposing ban has repeated across the entirety of the matches the ‘Geddon has seen. 5 bans for the Bhaal from opposing teams across 7 matches, a telegraphing of teams not wanting to face capacitor warfare that has secured the ‘Geddon pick its power. However with a total 23 bans coming in against the Bhaal, the most of any ship by 35%, the substitution or exploitation is far from straightforward, the ‘Geddon’s own 12 bans contributing to this.

Surviving all but one of its matches and once being fielded as a pair, the ‘Geddon has seen a wide variety of compositions, its only consistent allies being the Oneiros and Daredevil. Outside of this it’s fallen into BC core compositions, drone teams and Vindy compositions, finding success in all of them, whether this is an effect of the feeders bubble or if it will continue when flagships and other exotics rejoin the fray will be discovered in time.

 

Brutix Navy Issue

The BNI has seen mixed but prominent use throughout feeders, clocking a total 50 ships fielded, 46 of which were fielded as pairs. 59% of the time it was fielded alongside its partner from AT XIV the HNI and an 69% win rate with its old partner shows that these more typical BC cores are going strong. Its other stand out role over the weekend has been less gloriously faring in an all-in hull tank. Though spectacular when it works, honestly this match is so satisfying, it fell short on average as we’ve come to expect from such compositions over the years.

A 59% win rate flags it up as strong regardless, the high dps and huge application bonus combine to make a favourable platform as well as bringing a utility high for links in a meta where command ships are coming at even more of a premium than previous years. The strength of the BC core has been shown but the cost increases have lead to compromises being made, the HNI to Harbinger being a prime target of this, but with a win rate drop from 85% to 50% in the BC core comps it’s not been a successful substitution.

An interesting quirk of the BNI however has been its interaction or lack of with the Scimitar, though neither heavily banned by friendly or opposing sides, the Scimitar was banned in 71% of matches the BNI was fielded in, twice the independant rate. A 100% win rate in 3 matches it did square off against the Minmatar shield logi isn’t big enough to make bold statements off but could be the beginning of an interesting trend.

Vindicator

If the Bhaalgorn was the focal battleship of AT XIV then the focal battleship of AT XV is going to be the Vin- ahahah, no. The focal battleship of AT XV will remain the Bhaalgorn, with nearly, (frustratingly nearly,) 75% of flagships being the predicted flagsheep we will see them being the crux of match after match throughout AT XV. In the shadow on the control umbrella the Bhaal offers however lurks a deeper darkness, one with blasters and space brakes.

The Vindicator is receiving a remarkable 3 point cost reduction this year to bring it in at 20 points, battleships overall having been increased since AT XIV. Typically seen in its natural form sporting blasters and an armour tank benefiting from its incredible up close damage and control. We’ve also seen incredible hull tanks for all-in composition, and, kudos to Hole Control, shield tanked fits fielded to mixed success, though a win for shield. At a 60% overall win rate they’re strong in most comps where their face melting™ damage combined with incredible tank especially in a hull tanked configuration, 64% survival rate, leads to solid victories and close defeats. Overall they averaged a 25 point positive differential across their 15 matches, speaking to their ability to trade even in unfavourable situations.

Taking on 7 of its 15 matches as pairs, and 10 of them without a T2 cruiser behind them the 20 point cost of the Vindicator is still a hefty investment at the top end. With a need to fit in components such a tackle, logistics, links and potentially a bigger control umbrella Vindies will often be along at the top, the difficulties of fielding the Vindy with heavy support are complex. Perhaps the heaviest composition we’ve seen in the feeders came from Purple Headed Warriors fielding a Bhaal, double Vindy and Onerios, having to then build a support wing with only as many points as the Vindies themselves cost. Its cost curve can been seen steeply against even the command ship and battlecruiser heavy comp Digital Vendetta brought against it.

 

Short-Lived

Two ships have stood out through feeders for less glorious reasons have been the Gila and Kitsune however. Their 40% and 33% win rates respectively are respectable enough, but their stat lines turn sour when you reach survival rate. 0% for the Kitsune is unsurprising, the low buffer, high impact ships draw fire like a moth to a flame, even so far as being primaried in 50% of their matches they saw. These infact resulted in the 2 joint fastest kills in the feeders each at a mere 11 seconds.

By contrast the Gila is a far less appealing target. Getting an effective buff from AT XIV, with the relaxing of rules on damage drones, means they are a highly effective damage platform. The combination of this with the tank bonus, pirate ship stat line and favourable slot layout provides durability however and can let them be a solid package of strong resists and raw hit points. With a strong tank and an incredible amount of ehp in their drone bay Gilas can often be relied on to hang in a fight and provide their damage for a long while.  

In the feeders however we’ve seen quite the opposite, despite their 40% win rate they have managed a mere 10.5% survival rate dying in an average of 03:24 when lost. The pressure to try and compress everything the Gila is on TQ into an AT passable package is tough, feeling pressure to be heavier tackle along with fitting improved application, cap support and potentially even remote support suites pushed onto them squeezes the tank or incredible application fits out. As the meta leans more and more towards high damage, high application teams however with Navy Battlecruisers, Command Ships and Vindicators becoming prevalent tankiness for a cruiser may not cut it.

Quad BC Comps

Speaking of those high damage, application compositions AT XIV’s meta defining Navy BC cores have made a strong return. A 66.7% win rate looks good, and when you take our their mirrors an 83.3% rate looks even better. Their traditional form has had to adapt however, with a Bhaal, T2 Logi and 4 N.BCs coming in at a whooping 92 points across 6 ships, the 2 points per ship it leaves for a full comp is a blow perhaps softened by the cheapness of the Daredevil at least. Last year the same core would have cost 86 points, opening up 75% more points in the support wing and allowing wider use of options like bombers, interdictors and EAFs. As such this core has been seen only one in the feeders, with most teams making sacrifices elsewhere to preserve their T2 logi.

Bhaals, ‘Geddons and Vindys were all fairly scarce with no other battleships being picked above the BC core. Command ships proved more popular, but with the sheer abundance of links in these comps they fall more into the same role as the comps that brought additional T1 Battlecruisers, combat and attack variants, additional high application damage to compensate for the lack of application support.

We have seen options with T1 and Frig Logi to good success, and No Logi to far less success. Freeing up 5-7 points can be crucial in allowing a balance between a functional core and potent support wing. However we see here an amplification of the changes than will define this year’s meta shift with Logistics and other high end hulls having their point values increased the already tight BC cores are simply feeling the squeezes most.

 

Frigate Logi

Growing in popularity in recent years, especially with the addition of their T2 variant 18 months ago, Frigate Logistics is a choice that’s been watched very expectantly throughout feeders. We’ve seen 8 pairs picked throughout feeders to mixed success, their 37.5% win rate isn’t glorious but is far from damning, especially on such a small sample size. Their low points cost is often their main draw, reflected in the fact 75% of their matches have seen them picked alongside pirate battleships, the most points expensive ships in the AT.

We’ve seen an incredible mixed set of approaches to Frigate Logi, with BC cores, traditional Battleship top ends, Vindicators and more exotic compositions. Predominantly shield compositions with Kirins that have fared poorly, though the one scalpel pair picked up a loss. A 20% win rate brought to us by an incredible Day 1 performance from Bright Side of Death.  A nearly perfect performance that began with an incredible 17 second logistics headshot and was marred only by the loss of their Kitsune before closing the match in less that 4 minutes.

On the armour side things have performed better, with a totally homogenous selection of Deacons getting a 66.7% win rate, mirrored in their survival rate. For the class as a whole survival rates, at 43.8% have been a little higher than win rates, with the weaker reps and incredible damage mitigation leading teams to simple punch past them.

This is a stark contrast to their cruiser sized brethren who have win rate, 54.2%, drastically above their survival rate, 30.6%. The ablative use of logistics is of no surprise to veteran followers of the AT however. Unlike in day to day use on TQ Logistics in the AT have little hope of being able to permanently sustain their teams against a full composition, so they work with the local tanks of their team, EWAR support and positional damage mitigation to buy time. If a Logistics cruiser is destroyed its job is to die slowly, trading its role of adding ehp to its allies with one of simply being ehp that needs to be destroyed first.

Despite this trend Logistics Frigates have been primaried in proportionately as many matches as their less survivable cruiser counterparts, 25.0% for cruisers to 23.6% for frigates. A potential explanation for the high value for the frigates, despite less overall kills on them, is that more teams are likely to test them to see if their low ehp pools can be broken, simply to force movement from a ship with a lower potent range or naive of the difficulty of applying to such small targets.

 

Drone Comps

After a couple of years relegated to the drawing board by a ban on T2 damage drones drone compositions will be returning this year to a mixed welcome. Rejoining a meta where logistics, command bursts, points values, and even team sizes have changed since their last period of dominance. Despite this we are immediately seeing some comps that dominated previous years with Vexor hull teams showing their teeth scoring a 71% win rate alongside the VNI(Vexor Navy Issue) and Ishtar, a pairing itself that has a 67% win rate.

In fact drones compositions overall have achieved a very reasonable 63% win rate across their 19 games, jumping to a 73% win rate on armor. This is unsurprising as the largest ranges of drone ships belong to Amarr and Gallente with the Gurista’s pirate line provide the only truly native shield tanked drone boats. Despite this drone boats have done respectably on shields with the Ishtar and VNI taking well to the shield tanks, though the only attempt to field the full Gurista offering fell rather flat for Iron Armada.

Meta Efficacy

So the first stats blog I wrote, back for the 2nd NT season, I tried to include a snapshot of the season with a graph of win and pick/bans rates for each ship. Doing such a thing for these ships would be possible– in fact one moment, here it is:

Now. This isn’t that useful as a whole is is? Well, it might be interesting if we could make it even bigger. However with a bigger ship pool and the far higher variance in fittings it’s nothing like as useful. Instead my best offering might be this.

Though I will admit now to uncertainty regarding some of my assignments, (I didn’t get to watch every match and this was retroactively constructed, something that won’t be happening again) I feel this gives a stronger sign of what’s occurring in the meta of the Feeders. For some clarity I’ll break down the labels here.

  • Armor

Teams based around armor tanked ships with either armor logistics or local armor tank, featuring enhanced utility from freed up mid slots and usually reduced reliance on capacitor for tank.

  • Shield

Teams based around shield tanked ships with either shield logistics or local shield tank, read ASB, basically ASBs, featuring greater mobility and damage though often being more cap reliant for resistances.

  • Hull

Teams build around hull tanked ships, will typically huge ehp pools traded against agility and lacking meaningful hit point regain mechanics.

  • Traditional

The grouping I feel least sure of, this is covering a number of classical compositions but they are defined by having a multiple battleship top end that provides the bulk of the team’s damage with strong application and projection. This is most frequently represented by the TFI top end but can also include ships such as the N’Apoc’ or Nightmare. It also includes T2 logistics, a links ship, and then a standard looking support wing including at least some tackle and/or anti-tackle.

  • BC Core

A style emerging in AT XIV, this has been slightly expanded as a definition from the traditional quad navy BC and Flaggorn. Here it qualifies any team using at least 4 navy battlecruisers or other battlecruiser hulls as a high application, well projected, high damage core. These compositions are typically taken along with T2 logi and have an abundance of links due to their BC core.

  • Flykiller

A specific comp from past years that combines application support with high application to provide a potent threat against small targets, this typically involves a mix of light missiles, standard or rapid, and medium artillery to volley through small targets even under logi and win the support war early.

  • Drone

As it sounds, compositions that get the vast majority of their damage from drones, typically able to field a large amount of raw damage compared to other styles because they can invest in high damage lower point hulls in the mid range. The down side of the drones is their destructible nature and the flight time of drones, as well as typically the loss of logistics drones to support their team that missile or turret teams will often use. In exchange they get a damage platform that does not fall off with range and can apply independent of their team’s movement.

  • Vindy

Having such a heavy points reduction this year it’s no surprise comps have been popping up around the Vindicator. These are similar in silhouette to traditional compositions but play out very differently, the close range but intense damage and control that Vindicators offer tilts these towards brawling bruisery play rather than the more conservative play from range and reliance on support wing tackle you’d see from traditional comps.

  • CS Top End

Again a variation on Traditional compositions, these with the points increases trade the top end battleships for Command Ships, sacrificing some damage but receiving, often, a higher application, certainly a more mobile damage platform with command bursts bundled into that same package, this allows for increased investment in a support wing that will often bring supplemental damage.

  • RLML Spam

Compositions that go all out bringing a huge number of Rapid Light Missile Launchers before using their strong range, application and high burst dps to blast through ships. Unlikely to been seen in AT XV itself due to an incoming nerf these compositions do well at breaking logistics and hazing support.

  • All-In

Something that will always bring a smile to my face and many others watching, these compositions throw caution to the wind focusing entirely on maximising their damage and how to apply it. Often they will turn to hull tank to provide large buffers without having to rely on reps or links but will occasionally use bonused buffer tanks from armour and shield or ancillary boosters to provide their durability. Explosive to watch and typically decided quickly these matches are worth looking out for.

  • Tinker

Something more common in past years Tinkers are, usually, short manned compositions that prioritise survivability. In previous years they’ve typically been based around T3 Cruisers with their Adaptive remote repair sub systems, but a blanket ban on remote reps on T3Cs this years has all but killed the typical tinker. (Much to Bei’s delight.) A reintroduction of energy transfers this year has unlocked the other half of the classical tinker however. These teams aim to maintain a permanent tank by using cap transfers to support their heavily tanked logistics as well as numerous tank links and high resistance tanky ships. With typically low dps it is important to note if a Tinker forfeits any points by not spending 100 as many matches that involve them can go to time with no ships destroyed. Reliant on their durability and specific positioning Tinkers face a great threat this year in the point reduced Vindicator which can disrupt positioning and provide tank breaking damage. They will be an interesting rarity in AT XV if they are seen.

  • Pseudo Tinker

Taking the ideas of the tinker but not fully investing results in these comps. Using cap transfers and links to maximise the tank of their logistics but not tying the entire team to it, often giving the task of providing cap to a pair of Battleships who will stay with the logistics. This however hobbles the logistics mobility or that of aggressive battleships.

  • Frig Logi

Not a composition in and of itself but a modification to given style. Compositions that take Frigate Logistics make a much deeper change than those that trade T1 for T2 cruisers, the creation of the self reliant pair of ships as well and the massively reduced range compared to cruiser logistics leads to compositions that are typically made to skirmish as a group, being able to deal damage while keeping the team together and safe away from the hard tackle that might be the death of their fragile Logistics Frigates.

  • Cruiser Support

Another modification to a comp, this modification has been made possible in the AT XV rules more than in any previous year. With cruisers reduced to a mere 4 points, on par with Assault and Pirate Faction Frigates, and even less than Command and Tactical Destroyers, they have been a valid choice as tackle or even supplemental damage at only 1 point more than a Stealth Bomber. The choice to field these exclusively however and forgo the higher mobility and potentially greater anti-tackle potential of a frigate support wing can leave a team sluggish and slow to respond to faster more skirmish oriented compositions.

  • Misc.

With any game space as astronomically large as that of EVE even within the AT restrictions there will always be something that can’t be classified easily into the prominent meta groups whether it’s through obscurity or simple because it’s not taking an effective shape. As such the Miscellaneous group is formed.

  • (Short)

A label more than a style, this has been attached to teams that chose to run short manned with less than the full 10 team members. Typically a decision made due to points restrictions not allowing for a 9th or 10th player with the existing points invested it can also be a goal in teams such as Tinkers or All-Ins where low points ships are fragile and easily lost so the points are concentrated into fewer ships.

 

Looking at the graph through an analytical lense we are seeing prominent performances from BC Cores, Drone Comps, and unsurprisingly, Armor overall. With both of those most winnin– Nope. Nope. –most successful metas being natively, or classically armor based. We can expect to see more of these going into the AT itself, and the Oneiros, and to a lesser degree Guardian, being even more of a focal point.

Hull and All-In compositions performing poorly go hand in hand, inherently there is a reason why they aren’t seen as the norm. We will likely see even less of these in the AT itself as the quality of teams improves and the appeal of a chance victory that day one of the feeders had fades into the past. Comparatively the appearance, and success, of Vindy and Cruiser supported compositions both of which have been introduced to a large degree by the AT XV rule changes points to us seeing more of them as the AT XV meta crystallizes in the month of play to come.

Performing poorly and picked rarely the feeder performance of the Fly Killer and RLML Spam compositions has likely been their death knell, with each losing key components to changes before the AT as well we are unlikely to see more of them unless a team can come up with a true adaption of them to the new rules and new EVE that we will have come AT XV.

Tinkers and even Pseudo Tinkers sit in an odd position; though unsuccessful in the Feeders each have a following of teams that rate them and have shown them to perform well in previous years. The readdition of energy transfers may see the Pseudo Tinker tried by more teams but a lack of performance here may lead to a loss of confidence, closed door practise and theorycrafting may have a bigger impact in the end however. Both stand to receive a meta disturbing addition as we move into the AT proper though with the addition of unique ships. The Etana and Rabisu especially might well be seen in exotic Pseudo or pure Tinker compositions that are simply impossible with vanilla ships.  

 

Exotics

Overall the biggest disturbance to the Feeder meta going into the AT itself will be the additional of Exotics. Though practise and theorycrafting will refine the comps and may yet yield surprises, exotics such as flag Bhaals and AT ships open up options that are simply impossible with standard tools.

The flag Bhaals and ‘Geddons, together over 90% of flagships, however will bias the meta even further into the armor, making Oneiros, Guardian and even the Rabisu crucial picks and bans to support these flagships. Though an enhancement to any composition they fit into these control oriented battleships will likely be most powerful in the BC core compositions where they can be made to fit on points and will enhance the headshot ability and reinforce the projection of their teams.

The remaining 5 flagships include a pair of Vindicators, with comps around them looking strong the enhanced flagship versions are a solid evolutionary though not revolutionary upgrade. 2 SNIs and a Rattle make up our diminutive shield contingent, with only SAMURAI SOUL’d OUT, Dream Fleet and Hole Control placing faith in a shield tanked flagship. Traditionally tournament stables the SNIs look to be strong enough ships, with the teams that picked them in previous years being both a minority and high finishing, of sorts. The lone Rattlesnake has regained potency this year with the relaxed drone rules and follows the same mold though without such a storied history.

Special Matches

To go from the uniqueness of the Rattlesnake pick to the uniqueness of three interesting matches before I round this blog out. There are 3 matches that jump out from and stats point of view, and we were lucky enough to catch each on stream.

 

The prize of fastest match of the Feeders, likely AT XV and potentially AT history, (though I wasn’t doing stats for that so I wouldn’t know.) goes to the Blades of Grass victory over An Alliance Has No Name. An absolute stomp that resulting from a Tinker from An Alliance Has No Name warping at 0 on top of a blaster all-in from Blades of Grass. The incredible blaster damage would have been painful enough but in keeping with the AT XV theming Vindicators and Daredevils were slipped into the Blades of Grass composition shutting out any hope the Tinker might have had. Within 17 seconds the Basilisk was broken and in a little over a minute more only wrecks remained of the An Alliance Has No Name team.

 

With more than half of all the boundaries violations in the feeders this match was a rollercoaster of surprises the heavy Frigate Logi team of Men with Fancy Hats were out ranged and out paced by Legio Astartes Arcanum’s shield and RLML centric comp. Reliant on their two Vigilants, the fastest tackle they had, to secure tackle and so position on the kiting shield team things were an an interesting state as the traded them for the isolated scimitar of Legio Astartes Arcanum. Overall however they had won the positional battle and with long range webs and speed on their side Legio Astartes Arcanum looked in a favourable position with no tackle or long range damage against them. In a moment this was all lost however as the tightly grouped team hit the boundary together, losing 8 ships in the course of 4 painful seconds and bringing the match to a premature end with only 2:30 on the clock.

 

A rare occurrence given the sheer size of the game space that the AT takes place in this match between Red vs Blue and Requiem Eternal as both teams bring the exact same hulls to bear. Careful examination of the Fancy UI though begins to split the teams with Requiem Eternal bringing some more control and less damage than Red vs Blue. Both solid and well rounded drone comps the early stages were spent playing for position as their drone swarms seek targets. This broke down as Red vs Blue went for the Guardian of Requiem Eternal, breaking it while it tried to MJD away on a beacon. Red vs Blue stalled out their damage however even with the logi advantage they trade two Ishtars for a VNI from Requiem Eternal. Left behind on DPS they took out out the Eos at the top of Requiem Eternal team taking out links and leaving the rest of the team even more vulnerable. Red vs Blue still suffered to the damage of Requiem Eternal losing both Vexors for just one from Requiem Eternal. The choice of Requiem Eternal to spread out and increase flight times likely all that saved the match for them buying themselves time while Red vs Blue couldn’t deal damage providing a valuable substitute for reps as they finally broke the Guardian of Red vs Blue. Going into the last two minutes only Hyena and Eos remained for Red vs Blue while Requiem Eternal hold an Ishtar along with both Huginn and Hyena and even a Vexor leaving them with much more control and damage despite similar remaining defenses. Trading Hyena for Vexor Requiem Eternal had a solid points leads that they managed to play out for a victory at time. The 10 point margin the narrowest of Day 1 and third of the Feeders overall, a fittingly close match for mirrored compositions.

In Conclusion

Overall a much appreciated return to the AT format the AT XV feeders have had their share of spectacular moments. We’ve seen diverse compositions using a considerable 45% of the ship pool available. We’ve seen performances from more and more varied teams than ever before, with a whopping 88 teams looking to see play over the whole of AT XV.  We’ve seen nearly 900 ships compete and more than 550 ships destroyed already, and with Tinkers on the out and Vindicators on the rise we are in for an explosive and incredibly destructive AT to come.

ATXV Feeder rounds on EVE_NT Arena

It’s almost time, EVE sports fans, the pinnacle of the EVE sports calendar, the Alliance Tournament is launching soon. This year CCP will be holding feeder rounds on the community Thunderdome server, and we are publishing results on EVE_NT Arena.

On June 10th and 11th, a total of 56 teams will battle through the feeder rounds attempting to enter the full ATXV brackets. Now, with less than 2 weeks to go, Thunderdome has been opened for teams to practice as of Saturday May 27th. If you are a participant please bear the following important information in mind about Thunderdome access.

EVE_NT Arena Coverage

The feeder brackets have been set up in the EVE_NT Arena, in which we will aim to cover every single preliminary match result. As it stands just now, there will be 2 Arenas active in Thunderdome and we will be streaming the action from one of them over at https://www.twitch.tv/eve_nt_tv. While we shall endeavor to get every match VOD added to each match result, the priority for us will be recording the team setups and match results.

Normally we would do this by assigning a hull to a rostered player, which we would register manualy on the website, but for the Alliance Tournament, we will be using 2 generic rosters for every single team. These rosters will enable us to capture the team setups alongside the match results – so competitors can review a nice chunk of the early meta.

ATXV Preliminary Brackets

This won’t be like any regular event or bracket on the EVE_NT Arena website and the tournament brackets have been customised to try and better explain the outcomes of the matches. CCP have announced the feeder rounds will follow this format:

  • Round 1: 56 teams, with the 28 teams that win progressing to the Alliance Tournament
  • Round 2: 28 teams, with the 14 teams that lose being eliminated
  • Round 3: 14 teams, with the 6 teams that lose being eliminated (2 teams will receive a bye)
  • Round 4: 8 teams, with the 4 teams that win progressing to the Alliance Tournament

The round of 56 will be completed on June 10th, with all remaining matches being played out on June 11th. The byes in round 3 will be awarded to the two remaining teams with the highest average points difference across their previous matches.

Our brackets for these feeder matches will span over multiple tournament brackets, with round 1 already set up; in round 1, teams only require a single win to go into the ATXV brackets. The teams that lose will go into a grueling bracket in which they have to win 3 matches to enter the ATXV bracket.

Round 2 ATXV feeder matches will be taking place on June 11th on a new tournament bracket on EVE_NT Arena – we will have the schedule available after round 1 is completed on June 10th.

Seeding for the feeder tournament will be randomized, and CCP will announce the draw soon. When the schedules are announced we shall start to fill the brackets up and create a schedule page on the EVE_NT Arena website.

Good luck teams, see you in Thunderdome! In the meantime check out Mawderators new podcast, In Mawderation.

Complete Information Season 2 Stats Blog

Are you sitting comfortably? Then I’ll begin.

Originally intended to be a brief summary of the season this has become something of a magnum opus in the eyes of those around me as more and more data has been pulled, collated, corrected and finally analysed. As such, this may slightly exceed the intended length and ramble on, I hope only to keep it interesting throughout and present my take on the brilliant season through the lens of statistics.

 

The Only Points That Matter: Final Standings

Of course the only numbers that matter at the end of the day are league points, they decide our winners and track our season. Winning the Major League with 23 of a potential 28 points is The Other Team. Meanwhile Exodunks take the Minor League with 21 points.

The match wins that can be seen here effectively represent how the scores would line up without bonus points for dominations and show how, especially in the Major League, these bonus points are key in differentiating an otherwise very tight field. Though eventually not an issue the domination wins of Team Johnny and Clevergirls would have left them tied for 4th to be split by Pf. Comparatively V0LTA’s pair of domination victories put them above Provi-Shotz and earnt them 10 additional prize skins.

Overall, despite the outliers in 1st and 8th, the Major League was insanely tight with only 6 points between 2nd and 7th. The Minor League was a more diverse field, but even they found 3rd and 4th divided by but a single bonus point. In total 18 bonus domination points were awarded throughout the season; enough to place 2nd in either league.

Pf(Points for) against Pa(Points against) makes a rather satisfying graph. The S shaped curve follows what you’d expect and bar one team, which I’ll explore later, there are few deviants. In fact it was so consistent I went on to compare the actual Pfs to predicted Pfs based on the average Pf in wins and losses and a team’s record.

Seen here the predictions hold up fairly well, barring an aforementioned selection. Though this is potentially a product of a small data pool it also points to a consistent pattern of break points in matches that is simply a facet of the format.

 

Red vs Blue: Theorycrafting Really Is All That

One of the hot button topics throughout the season has been the Red vs Blue balance. Once more Bei gets to sit back and relax at the end of season as it miraculously comes out at a perfect 50:50. This seemed a distant thought when we reached the mid season with nearly a 70% win rate for Blue. However this has been turned on its head, especially for the major league where the win rate for Red has been over 85% in the second half of the season and the final day lead us to a full Red wash.

The onus for this shift has been in theorycrafting, Blue having the key first picks of Cruiser, that is to say logistics, and Battlecruiser allowed them to secure composition defining picks. Where Frigate and Destroyer were relatively uncontested groups Battleship could be controlled by the choice of logistics paired with the Blue side split double logistics ban we came to see so frequently. 26 out of 56 matches in fact, and 4 more where a double logistics ban hit just shield or armour rather than the more typical both.

This gave Blue the advantage as the format was felt out, able to find the key picks they needed to put together strong compositions and able to bully Red into potential suboptimal frigate picks left them in a strong position. This shifted around the midpoint of the Championship, though signs were there into Q2.

A number of strategies came together for Red side including: a shift in bans away from an initial theme of armour battleships, the use of frigate logi, griffin picks or afterburner fit frigates all contributed to mitigating or undoing the effects of the Blue side double logistics ban.

This combined with further testing and theorycrafting based around alternative picks, what Red could do after Blue had taken the tools they wanted began to come together to restore and even sway the balance between Red and Blue. With Red still feared when the coin flip comes around it’s been the focus of theorycrafting and swung round to become the dominant side, at least in the Majors.

The drafting differences between the Majors and Minors are quite startling with Blue side priority, and by extension Red side tendency, being almost mirrored. We have also seen more typical drafts from Red in the Majors, seeking logistics and playing out more normal games.

This divide between Majors and Minors in Red vs Blue winrate follows this idea that theorycrafting became the driving factor.  It’s not a difficult leap to take to say that our Major League teams put more in and are potentially just better theorycrafters. This is something that may become even more true next season as we see for the first time in this format a fully qualified Major League.

 

Armour vs Shield: A Question as Old as Ravens

So, the end of the season has come and we have an answer, armour is better, with over a 60% winrate. By comparison shield only manages a little under 45% bested even by the, admittedly shield based frigate logi picks and their 50%. Not picking Logi however has been, perhaps unsurprisingly, unsuccessful.

This can in part be traced back to the Red and Blue side priorities and win rates for the different leagues. The Blue dominated Minors prioritise armour on Blue, while the more Red dominated Majors prefer to pick Shield on Blue and leave Red to often pick armour. The Armour-Shield divide is most apparent in the Minor League however.

Compared to relatively even numbers in the Majors, Armour has a drastically higher win rate in the Minors and Shield is no longer breaking even. Surprisingly logistics frigates manage an even 50% in both Leagues, though typically the frigates were different, where the Bantam was the exclusive choice in the Major League the Minors saw the Burst in favour despite its worse record.

Interestingly the strategy of playing without logistics is more popular, and far more successful in the Major League. The sample is small enough that this statistic is artificially inflated by Phalanx’s hail mary compositions under Grookshank in the final weekend. However the additional success points to more practised and polished strategies, even for all in no logistics compositions.

Continue reading “Complete Information Season 2 Stats Blog”

120 seconds with – The Other Team

Major League veterans and now 2 time season winners, The Other Team have sat down with us to an extended interview. The Championship still has one week to play, but no one can threaten their position. We were joined by renowned Team Captain Hoodie Mafia.

Congratulations! How does it feel to be the winners of your second EVE_NT Major League Championship?

We worked really hard this season and invested a lot of time into it, so it feels awesome to know that it was time well spent. I think everyone on the team is very happy with it

What do you feel was your biggest theorycrafting challenge in the whole tournament?

Re-discovering the meta after the changes Bei made to the fits and the inclusion of the links to the tournament. We sort of picked it up where we left last season but quickly realised things were very different and that even small fitting changes can have a huge impact on how you ban effectively.

 

Other than that it was to attempt to stay 1 step ahead of our opponents, and having to test what felt like endless possibilities to figure out what our opponents were going to do

Bei Artjay said you were practicing 3-4 times a week but we all know he believes anything anyone tells him. How many times did you really practice?

We practiced 2 times per week vs teams from the Minors and Major league, we have a rather small team that is split between EU and US timezone so weekday practices are normally out of the question for us. We did hold regular theorycrafting sessions when the time zones allowed it

How often have you won as being Red team?

After our 6th game we are evenly split 3 red 3 blue, so that gives us 3 red wins. We did pick blue whenever given the opportunity though, since we felt that blue is a bit easier to do and requires less banning preparation. In the end we felt that the color we got should not impact our match results, and it didn’t

Do you guys participate in any other eSports and how do you feel the formats compare?

All of us have had some Alliance Tournament experience, and some are AT veterans. Compared to the AT this format is easier get into and requires less time commitment, but allows for a greater level of control through piloting due to being limited to 5 people.

Both tournaments reward practice and dedication, and we feel that they work perfectly next to each other

This seasons main prize is the IGC skin for the Raven. What ship hull would you like to see in the IGC Skin next season?

The Hyperion for sure

Do you have a system for distributing the prizes among your very small team?

Everyone that makes it on the team gets whatever they put into it, we don’t look at how many matches a pilot has played in but rather how many training sessions he attended and how much he has contributed to theorycrafting. This ensures that if you commit a lot of time to it you will get rewarded for it, even if you weren’t picked to fly in some matches

Just how ISK rich have you (guys) become through playing exclusively in eSports related activities?

We aren’t into the tournament scene for the ISK, but for the thrill of winning and overcoming challenges. Most importantly we simply very much enjoy the balanced field pvp in eve where player skill and teamwork makes a massive difference

.

 

The reward is certainly nice though, and some of us have been able to afford some more luxurious things by selling the prizes

What has been your favorite hull from the tournament so far, and are there any that you would change?

It has to be the Ferox, and I don’t think that surprises anyone. We feel that the Ferox is the ultimate Battlecruiser in terms of dps, projection and tank. On top of that it is the only viable skirmish link ship and still has some tackle fitted to deal with small pesky ships or hold something down.

 

We think pretty much all of the fitting decisions were great because it forced you to think in terms of what the ship and the given fitting can do. You might see the Armageddon as a very dominant ship but fitting restrictions might make it less ideal and you have to look at other ships that are tailored for the job

.

 

If we were to change anything it would be the banning order, some ships and ship classes saw (nearly) no play because they are underwhelming compared to their counterparts. Examples of this are dps cruiser vs logi cruiser or AB frigate vs ewar frigate (except the Griffin).

Changing the ban order allows these to be used as counter picks and would allow for even more theorycrafting

Looking ahead to your final match, one must assume you won’t fall at the final hurdle, and will remain undefeated this season. Phalanx have not had a good run of luck lately. How certain of victory are you?

We try not to underestimate any opponent, mistakes are made easily and what looks like an easy win can become a quick defeat if you get too cocky.

Our closest game so far has been vs Provi-ShotZ which statistically is not the strongest team in the league. We underestimated the Kestrel and while it might not have looked that close on the stream we nearly lost due to our Rokh being pinned down by it. Luckily for us we were able to recover and take out their Tempest instead
So while I think we are clearly the favorites and we think we can win we will give Phalanx the respect they deserve.

If we still had EVE-BET what kind of odds would you get on your victory?

Eve-bet we miss you!
We think taking eve-bet away was a huge viewer and prestige loss for anyone participating on these tournaments. Its a shame theres not even an alternative presented by ccp after taking a whole style of game away from us

What do you think of the Exodunks claim they will win so hard this weekend they’ll win both leagues? (link citation)

You can’t say those things and then lose a match right after, at least go 7-0 in the Minor leagues before you make any statements like that.

 

But really we know they were trolling. We welcome them to the next Major league season and let’s find out how good they really are. Playtime is over

Through this whole season you have only gave up 9 ship points. Which ship in your team has the most kill marks? (Screenshots or it didn’t happen)

The Rokh Tzuko1 flew 3 matches with – 9 Killmarks 3 per match!

Is there anyone you would like to give a shout-out to for any reason?

The EVE_NT staff and in particular Bei Artjay for designing and hosting an amazing tournament
Shout-out to the color red, we feel red has been getting bashed on by everyone for no good reason and we sympathize with it

Stats Blog 3rd Quarter

We will start the Q3 blog with a guest graph, provided for us this week by LL Anum, captain of the Power Ducks team. Here we see the improvement of the Lazerhawks team across the first three quarters of the Minor League Championship. From a difficult start against NT Cup champions Nasty Boyz and Minor League leaders Exodunks they have shown an improvement in form, taking a crucial win against Footwork. Most recently there was a huge upset in the battle of animal teams as the Fusion Pigeons defeated Sudden Otters.

Looking forward this climb in win rate can be extrapolated to a 150% rate in Q4 of this season. If Uber Kestrels do in fact win 3 of their upcoming 2 games; we will have a very interesting table indeed with them even challenging for the top spot if all 3 are dominating victories. This would be scary for teams such as Clevergirls and The Other Team who, though they look to be strong competitors into next year’s Major Leagues, won’t be able to compete with up to 80 points that the Torchlight Buzzards could get out of 28 that are available to most teams.

 

On the other hand, extrapolation is like the arena boundary, there are some merits to flirting with it, but jumping in head long is a danger that the Hyper Geese should know all too well.

 

So to depart from the realms of fantasy and return to the realms of analysis. We will start this week with an ever present but generally less and less surprising graph. Armour is still more successful than shield, shield a little more popular, frigate logi hit and miss and no logi means little success.

So how about we mix things up a little here and look at side popularity for the two main meta styles.

Though initially quite mucky this graph shows some interesting points. One of the interesting ones is the zagzag property of it. This is reflected in the comparison of picks between the minors and majors overall, pointing to distinct priorities within their own drafting metas. This can be broken down more clearly below.

Okay, the word clearly may have been optimistic here. This graph shows the meta choices in given scenarios. Divided between Red on the left, Blue on the right, Minors on the top and Majors on the bottom the quadrants break down the metas played. Here you can see the distinction between Majors and Minors fairly clearly.

 

In the Majors we see a strong tendency towards Blue shield and Red armour. In the Minor’s this gets flipped with Blue choosing more often to go Armour and Red taking shield. Though we see some variation in Blue picks with shield still making up a fair number of their picks the Minor Red side doesn’t vary onto armour often, taking it less frequently than either frigate logistics or logiless compositions.

 

We also see that frigate logi has never been taken on the Blue side of the draft. Despite the fact no logi compositions have been. These are a little anomalous however. With the Major League example being taken by The Charlatans after their draft was sadly derailed by connection issues. The Minor League example was an interesting no holds barred match between Footwork and Make Amarr Great Again, in which no form of logistics was picked. And interesting look at what eve tournaments might be.

 

Returning to the chronology of it all however you see two growing trends across the season. Blue shield and Red armour. This has been a fairly constant thing in the Major League, and something we can expect to see in the finals for sure, but both have been growing in popularity in the Minors. In fact only in Q3 have we seen a Minor League team get an armour composition on red side. Plasma Falcons in their aforementioned victory over Sudden Otters and Exodunks in their dominating victory over Footwork.

 

Inevitably this had lead to declines in Blue armour picks as >95% of Blue side compositions include logistics so there is little neutral ground between the shield and armour camps.

 

Returning to the subject of extrapolation there is one piece of extrapolation that I feel I can safely make. The Other Team will continued to the end of the season undefeated. So far undefeated, though more bloodied in their latest 15-4 victory over second place Clevergirls than in any match so far. Having secured the victory the final match in securing this incredible season will be against Phalanx, a team that has so far been unable to pick up victory.

 

The Other Team’s undefeated reign is hard to pin on anything in particular, if only because in a record with no losses there is a lack of contrast with which to find what they have been doing well. Splitting their matches into red and blue side matches however gives lead to something we can analyse:

 

Thrasher, Osprey, Ferox, Rohk, Every, Single, Match, (Nearly).

Typically an AB frigate will be added to this. And this is the only team we’ve seen go so far in their faith in this little sub-class of ships as to pick the Kestrel when Team Pretty picked the more favoured Slasher away. Together this provides an incredibly strong team, with the support wing mixing survivability with decent highly applicable damage, and a top end that synergizes with its core to put damage where it’s needed.

 

However we also see adaptability. Against V0LTA the Rokh is overlooked for a Typhoon, whose huge long range damage allowed them to instantly attack the weak link of a shield tanked Dominix at the top end of the armour composition V0LTA drafted. The choice of the Typhoon here allowing them to apply pressure to a long range ship that would have been able to avoid the point blank damage of a Rokh.

 

On Red side their play has been more interesting to look at. Though a match against Provi-Shotz saw them take shield it was a compromised version of their blue side standard. This involved giving up the Ferox to their own bans and the Thrasher to Provi-Shotz picks, though getting their critical Osprey logi due to a more open banning phase by Provi-Shotz.

 

Typically however they’re forced into armour by the standard Blue side double logi bans and shield preference. Here we’ve seen them damage control in their draft and produce solid armour meta compositions, including the now classical drone boat destroyer and battlecruiser picks. We also saw them throw a considerable curveball against The Charlatans, with an effectively used Griffin pick.

 

We see them placing greater value on the Ferox than many other teams, always banning it when red and always picking it when blue. I believe this speaks to the priorities of the team. While the Ferox is no longer the dominant force that is was, having dropped to a 55% win rate, it is the only valid skirmish link platform by many accounts. In that it brings the ability to enhance benefits of piloting well, by improving damage mitigation and allowing better control of positioning.

 

By controlling this Ferox pick The Other Team solidify their goals for each match, to out-pilot their opponents. And with an undefeated record, and the Championship in their pocket, it’s hard to argue they aren’t the team to do it. Drafting a solid team in each of their matches they ensure that are at least not disadvantaged and take what advantages they can and allow skill to bring them the victory. As such their drafts are rarely anything spectacular but their matches often are.

 

In recent weeks we’ve seen Red side securing more victories and gone are the weeks of 5-2 and 6-1 biases for Blue side. A key factor in this has been an understanding of the Meta for teams. Early on the Blue side power of first picking the Logistics cruiser and Battlecruiser allowed them to control the top end of an unrefined game space in the draft. With both of these being crucial to defining a composition, if a team ends up being without the picks they want here and lacks good substitutes, they’d be at a significant disadvantage, as Red side often found themselves in early weeks.  

As we’ve seen the Championships progress we’ve seen the Red side become more versatile, but by no means less effective than Blue. Frigate logi, still picked exclusively from the Red side has given them options to move around the double logi bans Blue side so often throws out. A better understanding of power picks has refined their banning away from the pure armour battleship bans of early weeks. Though the void between the sides still exists in the Minors where over 60% of matches go to the Blue side; in the Majors there isn’t even a 5% margin between them. Shown in the chart earlier the Red side in the Minors is the most varied between the metas, inevitably this causes them problems, especially a large number of drafts taking the unsuccessful no logi comps.

 

You can pin this lack of adaptability in the Minor League to a single stat potentially. The number of unique ships which each team has picked is nearly 20% higher in the Major League. The ability to adapt a composition as required and not lean on specific picks match to match is a strong one. Even in the Minors, comparing the top 4 teams to the bottom 4 teams reveals a 10% difference in the number of unique picks.

 

Though of course a factor which would have diminishing returns, being able to comfortably use a variety of ships and compositions gives you the tools to take advantages in the draft or at least mitigate damage. This should of course be taken with a pinch of salt as teams will have trained compositions and options they have not played.

 

With that in mind a few interesting statistics, especially so late in the season, do emerge. Sadly in the last week Team Johnny have lost not just a match to Clevergirls but also the title of most varied team. Clevergirls have overtaken them and have now played more than 30% of the available ships for the format.

 

At the other end of the spectrum Team Pretty and Make Amarr Great Again have never played a shield based composition. In fact Make Amarr great Again have only picked 12 different ships throughout the Championship, 30% down on the overall average of 17.5. Impressively true to their name they have suck to just one Amarr frigate for the entire championship: the Punisher.

 

On a bittersweet note the compromised draft by The Charlatans did produce the most unique single draft of the tournament with 4 unique picks. Only by having picked the Talos in the Battlecruiser slot could it have been made an utterly unique team.

With the Finals ahead of us we could see the most volatile week yet in terms of drafting with teams throwing out hail marys. Or, with so much data to draw on, we could see some of the most calculated and optimized drafts yet. Personally I hope to see teams focus on what they are comfortable with to try and maximise their capacity to out-pilot opponents.  But this is EVE and min-maxing is what we do, so we can expect nothing less here, I’m sure. With everyone from Exodunks to the Tesla Coil Owls fighting for position in the Minors and Cleversgirls through to Team Pretty still battling for it in the Majors there is a lot on the line.